Japan’s Defense Report Warns of Ukraine-Like Development in East Asia; Analyzes China’s Actions Around Taiwan

The Yomiuri Shimbun

20:00 JST, July 12, 2024

There is a danger that a situation similar to Russia’s aggression against Ukraine could occur also in East Asia, the government said in its latest defense report.

According to the Defense White Paper 2024 that was released Friday, China owned more than 500 operational nuclear warheads as of May last year, with the number could exceed 1,000 by 2030, as Beijing is expected to continue to increase its arsenal through 2035.

The government predicted in its report that China will continue to reinforce its nuclear and missile capabilities to counter the United States.

Regarding China’s military movements, the paper expressed vigilance over the country’s increased activities around Japan, including in the waters off the Senkaku Islands in Okinawa Prefecture. It viewed the current situation as the greatest strategic challenge that Japan has ever faced in terms of ensuring the peace and security of the country.

China conducted military drills in response to Taiwan President Lai Ching-te’s stopover to the United States in August 2023, while he was still vice president. Analyzing Beijing’s move, the paper stated that the exercise was possibly a partial rehearsal of an operation to invade Taiwan. It also said China is planning to enhance its combat capabilities through military activities around the island, stressing that the possibility of increased military tension between China and Taiwan cannot be ruled out.

On Russia’s aggression against Ukraine, the paper stated that the foundations of the rules that shape the international order were easily breached. The report for the first time incorporated concern over the possibility that a similar serious situation could occur in East Asia.

The paper said that Russia has maintained its military capabilities by procuring ammunition and missiles from North Korea, and it predicts that the importance of Moscow’s military cooperation with China will grow further.

Regarding North Korea, the paper noted that the country is focusing on improving its nuclear and missile capabilities in qualitative terms, such as by securing means of intelligence gathering, warning and surveillance operations, and reconnaissance.