Japan’s Ishiba to be Tested Ahead of Upper House Election; All Eyes Will be on Whether PM Can Pass Budget this Fiscal Year

The Yomiuri Shimbun
Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba gives his policy speech at a plenary session of the House of Representatives in Tokyo on Friday.

Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba’s first policy speech deeply reflected the difficulties the minority ruling coalition faces, as the approval rating for his Cabinet has remained at low levels.

The ordinary Diet session will be a crucial time for Ishiba to see whether he can put his government back on track by completing such tasks as passing the budget within this fiscal year, ahead of the House of Councillors election set to be held in the summer.

Difficult situation continues

“While seeking the cooperation of the opposition parties and others, I would like the Diet to move forward, Ishiba said.

To conclude his speech, Ishiba referred to former Prime Minister Tanzan Ishibashi, who placed importance on deepened discussions between the ruling and opposition parties. Ishiba also did so during the extraordinary Diet session last autumn, expressing his intention to build a broad consensus.

Ishiba is believed to have done so because the ordinary Diet session is expected to unfold similarly to the extraordinary Diet session, in which concessions are repeatedly made to the opposition parties.

The biggest focal point in the first half of the ordinary Diet session will be what the budget for next fiscal year will look like. Tensions are likely to grow in the House of Representatives by the end of February over passing the budget within this fiscal year.

To gain the support of two opposition parties, namely the Democratic Party for the People and the Japan Innovation Party, the government and ruling parties — the Liberal Democratic Party and Komeito — are even considering amending the once-compiled budget to reflect the opposition’s demands.

The government and ruling parties will also likely take into consideration the demands of the largest opposition party — the Constitutional Democratic Party of Japan — to ease the mood.

Trying to do everything himself

While expressing his enthusiasm to work with opposition parties, about 30% of his speech was about promoting regional revitalization.

He spoke about new guidelines, including the relocation of industry, government and academia to regional areas, a “regional innovation creation initiative” and a new framework for regional collaboration.

However, the regional revitalization that Ishiba envisages, as a source close to him said, “presupposes that regional areas would take the initiative to come up with and realize effective measures.”

There is also criticism about Ishiba’s scheme, as it “seemingly delegates all responsibility to regional areas,” a former cabinet member said.

Regarding his vision for the nation, Ishiba said he aims for Japan to be a “fun Japan,” but his explanation only used abstract term such as “attempting to realize a dream” and “achieving self-actualization.”

Ishiba, who had long been an opposing voice within the LDP, lacks someone, among Diet members, bureaucrats and his close aides, who can take on the role of an adviser.

Ryosei Akazawa, the minister in charge of economic revitalization, is also “trying to do everything himself, and there’s not enough time to do it,” a ministry official said.

The absence of such a person has led to a national strategy that lacks long-term, concrete vision.

‘Rock-solid support base’

The Ishiba Cabinet’s approval rating has been hovering around 40% since the month following its inauguration. Compared to the Cabinets of former prime ministers Fumio Kishida, Yoshihide Suga and Shinzo Abe’s second Cabinet, which ranged from mid-50% level to around 70%, the approval rating of the Ishiba Cabinet has been “stable at low levels” without a major collapse.

“The prime minister has a rock-solid support base and won’t fall any further,” said a Diet member close to Ishiba .

Nevertheless, the reason for the stability of his approval rating is likely due to Ishiba taking a conciliatory stance toward the opposition parties, as he has prioritized the realization of a consensus.

Should his administration fail in talks with opposition parties and delay the passage of the budget, or a ministerial scandal is uncovered, his Cabinet’s approval rating will plunge.

Such a situation may push those within the LDP, some of whose members are currently taking a wait-and-see approach ahead of the upper house election set to be held this summer, to try and “bring down Ishiba.”