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Even if Prime Minister Fumio Kishida, the president of the ruling Liberal Democratic Party, were to be reelected to head the party, it would be difficult to hope for a revival of the LDP if he remained unable to dispel public distrust of politics.
Kishida must have decided that this is the time for him to make a decision about whether to resign, and to build a new structure to face national elections.
Internal and external challenges abound. Political stability is essential. With Kishida now set to step down as prime minister, the LDP must take this opportunity to regain trust by having individuals with high aspirations compete on policy and insight.
Kishida announced his intention not to run in the LDP presidential election in September; he will resign as prime minister when his term as president expires at the end of that month.
Paved way for pending issues
At a press conference, Kishida said, “The first step to show that the LDP is determined to change, the easiest step to understand, is for me to step aside.”
The term of the current House of Representatives members ends on Oct. 30 next year, and a general election may be held before the end of this year. A House of Councillors election is also scheduled for next summer.
The approval ratings for both the Cabinet and the LDP continue to slump due to issues of “politics and money.” Kishida may have thought that if the approval rating did not pick up after his reelection as president, the LDP might lose power in the national election.
Kishida expressed his feelings to a close aide, saying, “It goes against my intention to be told again and again to ‘take responsibility.’”
It can be said that the policies undertaken by the Kishida Cabinet, which was launched in October 2021, have all suited the times.
To cope with the increasingly severe security environment, the government decided to increase defense spending for the five years from fiscal 2023 by more than 50% over the previous level.
The government has also made a major shift in its national security policy by adopting the policy of possessing capabilities to strike enemy bases, which successive Japanese cabinets had stated that the nation would not possess as a matter of policy.
In diplomacy, Kishida improved relations between Japan and South Korea, which had been deteriorating due to the issue of former wartime requisitioned workers from the Korean Peninsula and other problems. The improvement was due to the fact that he built a relationship of trust with South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol.
Also, with regard to domestic policy, the government has enacted legal reforms to address the declining birth rate, primarily through the expansion of child allowances and childcare leave benefits. The effectiveness of these measures will remain to be seen, but there is no denying Kishida’s determination to confront the national crisis.
In the summer of 2023, the government decided to discharge treated water from Tokyo Electric Power Company Holdings, Inc.’s Fukushima No. 1 nuclear power plant into the ocean.
It should be commended for setting trajectories on various pending issues.
Dissonance within LDP
Despite this, the administration has stalled. One reason is the LDP scandals.
Judicial authorities have launched criminal proceedings against the accounting managers of the LDP’s Abe and Nikai factions and others over violations of the Political Funds Control Law. The factions allegedly turned a portion of the income from their fundraising parties into hidden funds. The former accounting manager of the Kishida faction was also held accountable in the criminal proceedings.
The party’s executive board punished 39 individuals, mainly from the Abe faction, but did not punish those from the Kishida faction. It is not surprising that dissatisfaction with Kishida spread within the party.
Also, Kishida abruptly announced the dissolution of the Kishida faction over the scandal without consulting the leaders of other factions.
The fact that Kishida made various decisions without consultations within the party, aiming for a surprise effect, caused confusion. Morale declined, and fewer LDP members were willing to support Kishida.
With the establishment of a system of the Prime Minister’s Office taking the strong initiative to lead the government, Kishida may have believed that once he made a decision, those around him would fall into line. But if he fails to carefully lay the groundwork and coordinate his actions with others, things are unlikely to move forward.
Quickly eliminate political distrust
The date for the LDP presidential election will be set on Tuesday. With national elections in mind, there is an atmosphere within the party to choose a politician who can be the “face for the election” as the new president.
However, the LDP presidential election is also an election to determine the leader who will steer the country. A person of high insight, a clear view on how the country should be, and the ability to coordinate with others to make progress in policies is appropriate. The LDP Diet members and other members who will be choosing the president need to be aware of these qualities.
This will be the first presidential election since the main factions announced their dissolution, but only the Moriyama faction has in fact dissolved. Recently, lawmakers have been coming together in ways resembling their former factions. It will become clear through the presidential election whether the dissolution of factions has become a mere formality.
Distrust of politics is directed not only against the LDP, but against the established political parties as a whole.
An opinion poll conducted in July by The Yomiuri Shimbun showed that the number of people with no party affiliation rose to 54% — the highest level since the 55% seen in August 2012 when the Democratic Party of Japan was in power.
While the LDP is losing credibility, the opposition parties are apparently unable to present policies that can compete with those of the LDP and thus are not inspiring hope among the public. It is imperative to stop the public from turning away from politics.
