Political Pulse

Year Of The Snake Holds Political Peril For Ishiba; Japan’s Prime Minister Heads Minority Ruling Party

The Yomiuri Shimbun
Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba speaks at his New Year’s press conference in Ise, Mie Prefecture, on Jan. 6.

By Yukiko Ishikawa

8:00 JST, January 25, 2025

According to the Chinese zodiac, 2025 is the Year of the Snake. As snakes grow by shedding their skin, they are said to symbolize new beginnings. In politics, this symbolism has often proven apt.

In the Year of the Snake 2013, the Liberal Democratic Party won a landslide victory in the House of Councillors election, riding the momentum gained from retaking power from the Democratic Party of Japan in the House of Representatives election the previous year, thereby resolving the deadlock between the Diet’s two houses.

In the Year of the Snake 2001, the administration of Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi was born, and would go on to hold power for about five years.

In the Year of the Snake 1989, the era changed from Showa to Heisei, the consumption tax was introduced, and the LDP suffered a major defeat in the House of Councillors election.

All three of these past Years of the Snake can be called turbulent years that marked the beginnings of new systems.

There is a growing view that Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba will launch a major political challenge in this Year of the Snake. He told the media at the end of last year, “There is no rule that House of Councillors and House of Representatives elections cannot be held at the same time.” Hinting that he might dissolve the House of Representatives if it passes a no-confidence motion against his Cabinet, he pointed to the possibility of holding simultaneous elections for both houses.

Historically, simultaneous House of Councillors and House of Representatives elections have been held only twice. Both times, the ruling Liberal Democratic Party won landslide victories. The first such case was in 1980, when a no-confidence motion was passed against the Cabinet of Prime Minister Masayoshi Ohira, who responded with what was called the “unexpected dissolution” of the lower house. As a result, simultaneous elections were held for the first time. This episode is all the more remarkable in that Ohira died before the campaign ended.

In 1986, Prime Minister Yasuhiro Nakasone held simultaneous House of Representatives and House of Councillors elections in a more calculated fashion. In the 1983 lower house election, the LDP had lost a large number of seats. Nakasone, aiming to regain lost ground, wrote in his diary on New Year’s Day of 1986, “This year will be a year of great upheaval,” with the idea of holding simultaneous elections in mind. Even when the political situation made it difficult to hold simultaneous elections, Nakasone’s mind remained unwavering. He wrote in his diary in May: “I cannot dissolve the House of Representatives early, so I have to act like I’m devastated. I have to pretend to be asleep or to be dead.” After Nakasone continued to play dead, he dissolved the House of Representatives to implement simultaneous elections that were held in July, and the LDP won majorities in both houses.

Ishiba probably holds Nakasone’s success in his heart as an ideal. In last year’s lower house election, the LDP and its ruling coalition partner Komeito failed to win a majority of seats. It is expected that the “minority ruling coalition” will continue to face difficult times in this year’s regular Diet session.

In light of the current number of seats held by the ruling parties in the House of Representatives, the fiscal 2025 budget and other important bills cannot be passed without the support of opposition parties. A motion of no confidence in the Cabinet can be passed if a majority of the members present in the House of Representatives vote in favor.

No-confidence motions have been a symbolic seasonal feature at the end of Diet sessions, as opposition parties have submitted them in the full knowledge that they will be 100% rejected by the ruling party. Now, though, there is a high possibility that a no-confidence motion would actually pass, forcing the Ishiba Cabinet to either resign within 10 days or dissolve the House of Representatives in accordance with Article 69 of the Constitution.

A past minority ruling party met such a fate in 1994, when the Cabinet of Prime Minister Tsutomu Hata was forced to resign only about two months after taking office when the opposition parties submitted a no-confidence motion that passed.

Ishiba is said to have gained self-confidence during the debates in the extraordinary Diet session last year. A senior opposition party official made this prediction: “There is no atmosphere of Ishiba sitting back and waiting for death. I don’t think he will choose to resign like Prime Minister Hata. Ishiba will probably choose to dissolve the House of Representatives and launch simultaneous elections for both houses of the Diet.”

However, the next upper house election is set to be held this summer, and it is unclear whether Ishiba will have the political strength to hold out that long to launch simultaneous elections for both houses. There is still no prospect of passing the fiscal 2025 budget or other important bills, and it is inevitable that a large portion of the LDP’s political resources will be allocated to negotiating with the opposition parties during the regular Diet session. In this situation, anxiety is growing within the LDP as to whether they can win the House of Councillors election under Ishiba, which could lead to a movement to “take Ishiba down and replace him with a new prime minister.”

At his New Year’s press conference on Jan. 6, Ishiba positioned this year, the Year of the Snake, as “a year of regeneration and evolution,” and added, “I will work hard to make Japan a delightful and vibrant country with peace, safety, and security as the basic premise.” Ishiba is facing a critical moment as to whether he can make this a year of regeneration and evolution from a minority ruling party.

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