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By Shinichi Kitaoka / Special to The Yomiuri Shimbun
11:00 JST, March 21, 2025
U.S. President Donald Trump, having returned to power, has continued to shock and baffle the world.
Since the end of World War II, the international community has sought to settle international disputes by diplomacy, judicial processes, mediation and other peaceful means. As for the movement of goods across borders, the international community has agreed that tariffs should be lowered as much as possible and free trade be promoted.
These principles have not always been followed, but over many years they have come to be respected.
However, the principle of settling disputes peacefully was trampled on by Russia when it mounted its aggression against Ukraine, and Trump now shows signs of giving his retroactive approval for the invasion. He has also ignored the international consensus on trade and weaponized tariffs.
The Trump administration continues to advance his “America First” policy without mercy. Trump says other countries should also put themselves first, but in a contest between a major power and a small country it is obvious who will win. There are international laws and rules that are in place to reconcile conflicts of interests between countries, but Trump has little appreciation for them.
What is to be done?
First, every effort should be made to sustain the system of international cooperation. When one country pursues only its own interests, there is often a backlash from other countries, causing harm to both sides. Instead, countries should refrain from asserting their short-term interests for the sake of fostering long-term relationships.
The basis of such cooperation is the rule of law, which is being tested by the war in Ukraine. A ceasefire agreement acceptable to Ukraine, with armistice lines also acceptable to Ukraine, should be signed together with a set of frameworks that will provide guarantees. To be specific, Ukraine should be admitted into the North Atlantic Treaty Organization or troops from Kyiv’s Western allies should be deployed to Ukraine. The condemnations and decisions against Russia by the United Nations, the International Court of Justice and the International Criminal Court should be maintained. All-out efforts should then be made to reconstruct Ukraine.
Looking at things more broadly, countries that understand the need for international cooperation should strengthen their relationships. Japan, which is a major member of this group, should of course strengthen relations with South Korea, one of its closest neighbors, as well as with Europe and Australia.
In this regard, the Association of Southeast Asian Nations is particularly important to Japan. China has a significant presence in Southeast Asia. Nonetheless, Southeast Asia and Japan have had deep relations, and the region has a lot of trust in Japan. Above all, ASEAN countries do not want to be subordinate to any other country.
A union in the Western Pacific
For my part, I have proposed for several years now that Japan, Southeast Asia, Australia, Bangladesh and Pacific island nations establish a Western Pacific union. South Korea should be invited to take part in it, given the recent improvement in Japan-South Korea relations.
Should the proposed union materialize, it would emerge as a regional organization surpassing the European Union in terms of economy and population size. And unlike the European Union, whose population is mostly Christian, the Western Pacific grouping would be politically and culturally diverse. ASEAN itself has been successful as a regional entity, transcending various differences.
In recent years, ASEAN’s unity has been endangered by the chaos in Myanmar, Thailand’s political uncertainty and China’s growing presence. The creation of a Western Pacific union would also give ASEAN a significant boost for making a leap forward.
Some may question whether such a union is really viable. Let’s look 30 years ahead.
Japan’s international presence will have declined further due to the shrinking population. In the international community, the superpowers with huge populations and massive military and economic strength will have major influence. These would be the United States, China, Russia and India. Countries that will not be superpowers should form a coalition.
Over the past decades, Japan and Southeast Asian countries have developed unique relationships on top of their economic links. Bilateral cooperation in the area of maritime safety is one such example. Japan has worked with the Philippines, Malaysia, Indonesia and other countries, providing their coast guards with patrol boats and training. The Japanese government recently launched a new framework called official security assistance (OSA), which provides equipment and supplies to the armed forces and related organizations of like-minded countries to bolster their security and deterrence capabilities. The main OSA recipients are Southeast Asian countries.
Japan is also cooperating more on disaster response with countries in the Western Pacific region, which is quite prone to natural disasters. Several years ago when Central Sulawesi, Indonesia, was hit by an earthquake and tsunami, Japan and many other countries dispatched emergency response teams. Afterward, the Indonesian government requested Japan’s leadership in post-quake reconstruction there.
In ASEAN countries, there are many government ministers and senior officials who have studied in Japan. They are the basis for our relationships of trust. At present, the number of international students in Japan is either flat or falling. To reinforce Japan’s relations with Southeast Asia, efforts should be raised dramatically to boost the number of international students who want to come to Japan.
Lastly, there is the need to strengthen the United Nations. It has been pointed out since the beginning of the Russian aggression against Ukraine that the world body is powerless. As such, certain U.S. senators have demanded that the United States withdraw from the United Nations.
Japan finished its latest two-year term as a nonpermanent member of the U.N. Security Council at the end of 2024. The Japanese Foreign Ministry has declared that the country will seek a candidacy in 2032 for a 2033-2034 nonpermanent membership of the Security Council — the longest interval ever for Japan to be off the council. As long as it has no seat on the council, Japan’s say will inevitably decline considerably.
As I have mentioned on multiple occasions, I think “model B” — one of the two U.N. Security Council reform plans proposed in 2005 by a High Level Panel established by then U.N. Secretary General Kofi Annan — should be promoted as the basis for transforming the council. The model calls for creating eight new Security Council seats with each of the new seats being held for four years and being reelectable. It also calls for creating one additional nonpermanent seat, increasing the overall total to 24 seats from 15. If this model were adopted, Japan would undoubtedly be elected as a new-category member of the Security Council, and, when reelected, it would be able to serve another four years on the council — or it could sit one term out and then run again. This model would significantly improve the situation for Japan, as it would make it possible to stay on the Security Council either for eight out of 12 years or four out of eight years.
Becoming more active at U.N.
Japan could make a variety of proposals in collaboration with Southeast Asian countries. At the United Nations, Liechtenstein, Switzerland, Jordan, Singapore and Coast Rica form the Small Five group, which has made unique proposals from time to time, drawing the attention of other members. The proposed Western Pacific union would have a very strong influence thanks to its sheer size.
In Southeast Asia, countries like Malaysia and Indonesia are majority Muslim. Collaboration with these countries could help enhance Japan’s influence on Middle East issues. As Japan maintains good relations with the Middle East, there are high hopes for Japan to pursue an approach that is not U.S.-centric.
Countries in Africa, whose population is expected to rise rapidly, also value the United Nations. Japan launched the Tokyo International Conference on African Development in 1993. Japan’s relations with Africa are not bad, but it has not been very active on the continent of late. Still, considering that about 1 million Chinese people now reside in Africa compared to fewer than 10,000 Japanese residents, Japan has been doing well.
In the auto industry, there is certain to be growth in demand in India and Africa. In other words, long-term development is not possible for Japan if it fails to focus on Africa. The Trump administration’s decision to dismantle the U.S. Agency for International Development is having a severe impact on Africa. For its part, Japan should expand its official development assistance (ODA) with a view to providing a strategic boost to its cooperation with developing countries.
In short, Japan needs to strengthen its work at the United Nations in collaboration with countries that value international cooperation, Southeast Asian countries in particular, so as to preserve the post-war international system and maintain and even increase its influence in international affairs.
In January, Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba chose Malaysia and Indonesia as the first foreign countries to visit this year. He was right to expand the OSA program, but that expansion has not been enough. He needs to take an innovative approach, and it should be possible to do that without jeopardizing Japan’s relations with the United States. As Trump has little interest in this particular area, Japan is likely to complement U.S. diplomacy.
Shinichi Kitaoka
Shinichi Kitaoka is a professor emeritus at the University of Tokyo specializing in Japanese political and diplomatic history. His previous posts have included Japanese ambassador to the United Nations in 2004-06 and president of the Japan International Cooperation Agency in 2015-22.
The original article in Japanese appeared in the March 16 issue of The Yomiuri Shimbun.
