China May Have Practiced Blocking U.S. Forces in Drill Near Taiwan, Says Japan Institute for National Fundamentals

The Yomiuri Shimbun

7:00 JST, January 28, 2025

A large-scale drill that the Chinese military conducted nearby Taiwan in December seems to have been an exercise in preventing U.S. forces from approaching the sea around the island, according to analysis by the Japan Institute for National Fundamentals.

In the drill, Chinese warships deployed to the east of the “first island chain,” which stretches from Japan’s Nansei Islands to the Philippines.

Though China did not announce the drill, Maki Nakagawa, a research fellow at the institute, analyzed announcements from the Japanese Defense Ministry and Taiwanese defense ministry, among other data.

She found that the Chinese military likely conducted the drill from Dec. 6 to around Dec. 12.

Eighteen destroyers and frigates are thought to have been deployed east of the first island chain.

China favors a so-called anti-access/area denial (A2AD) strategy, in which the Chinese military would obstruct U.S. forces’ military operations to the west of the “second island chain,” which stretches from Japan’s Izu Islands to Guam, and would prevent U.S. forces from going beyond the first island chain, which lies to the west of the second chain.

“It’s possible that the Chinese military was practicing initial deployments for an invasion of Taiwan,” said Nakagawa.

In her analysis, she also introduced a report on Dec. 10, which said the Chinese military there was a training session for quickly repairing runways, in the event that they are bombed, in ’s Eastern Theater Command. The Eastern Theater Command is expected to be the main unit in charge should there be an invasion of Taiwan.

“The Chinese military seems to be flaunting its ability to respond to attacks on its strategic bases by the United States and Japan,” said Nakagawa. “It seems that they regards the attacks as a threat.”