Collapse of Regime in Syria: A Dictatorship Ends, But Stability Still A Distant Prospect

Editorial

15:05 JST, December 10, 2024

The regime of President Bashar al-Assad has collapsed in Syria after years of civil war. Although the half-century of iron-fisted rule has been brought to an end, there is no clear path to the restoration of order.

There is concern that the chaos in the Middle East will further deepen.

On Dec. 8, rebel groups that had been engaged in a war with the Assad regime advanced into the capital city of Damascus and declared that they had overthrown the regime. President Assad fled to Russia with his family.

Syria had been ruled by this heavy-handed regime since Assad’s father Hafez al-Assad became president in 1971. Hafez made Syria’s presence strongly felt as a leading power among Arab nations, but he died in 2000 and his son Bashar took over the reins of government.

In the Arab Spring democracy movement that spread across the Middle East in 2011, regimes in Egypt and other countries collapsed, but Syria maintained its dictatorship while carrying out indiscriminate attacks involving civilians under the guise of eliminating antiregime groups.

The fact that a dictatorship that had lasted for two generations, from father to son, came to an end all too easily with the advance of rebel forces in just over 10 days may have demonstrated the fragility of power based on violence and fear.

Russia and Iran had supported the dictatorship from behind the scenes, and changes in their own structures have led to the sudden change in Syria’s situation.

With its aggression against Ukraine, Russia has lost its wherewithal for involvement in Syria’s civil war. Iran has supported pro-Iranian armed forces such as Hezbollah, a Shiite group based in Lebanon, and has prioritized attacking Israel, which is invading the Palestinian territory of Gaza.

The focus going forward will be on forming a new government. The rebel groups are led by Islamist group Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, which the United States has designated as a terrorist organization.

There is a possibility that a new government to be formed by rebel groups cannot win the approval of the international community. Although the rebels were united in their anti-Assad stance, they are a mix of different ethnic groups with differing demands. There is concern that they may confront each other over domestic oil interests and other issues, which could lead to new fighting.

A situation must be avoided in which Syria falls into a state of anarchy and becomes a haven for terrorist groups.

More than 12 million Syrians have been displaced inside and outside the country since the civil war began. The international community should step up its support to prevent the plight of refugees from deepening with the collapse of the regime.

Investigations by the United Nations and other entities have revealed that the Assad regime has used chemical weapons, including the deadly poison sarin, against rebel groups. It will be necessary to pursue the responsibility of Assad and other former senior government officials, such as through international organizations.

(From The Yomiuri Shimbun, Dec. 10, 2024)