Results of Tokyo Assembly Elections May Have Effect on Upper House Election; LDP Concerned About Uphill Battle in Future Elections

The Yomiuri Shimbun

6:00 JST, May 20, 2025

The Tokyo metropolitan assembly election is seen as a prelude to the House of Councillors election because Tokyo has many unaffiliated voters and their stances on national politics are believed to be directly reflected in the results.

In the 2013 Tokyo assembly election, the LDP retook its position as the largest party in the assembly, and in the subsequent upper house election, both the LDP and its coalition partner Komeito won a majority of seats, resolving so-called twisted Diet, in which the two chambers are controlled by different camps. In 2009, on the other hand, the LDP suffered a crushing defeat in the Tokyo assembly election, and in a lower house election held right after that, the former Democratic Party of Japan defeated the LDP to take power in the House of Representatives.

In the latest survey, the percentage of respondents who said they would vote for the LDP was as low as it was in 2009. Among swing voters, 71% said they did not support the Cabinet of Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba, causing concern within the LDP that an uphill battle in the assembly election could affect the following upper house election.

The LDP has failed to come up with any key economic measures ahead of the two major elections. With swing voters in mind, some government officials have even said that Ishiba should refrain from publicly supporting candidates during the assembly election campaign period.

Komeito, which attaches importance to the Tokyo assembly election, is distancing itself from the LDP to avoid being equated with the party, and intends to adopt a strict stance on the issue of politics and money.

On the other hand, opposition parties are trying to appeal to swing voters by having party leaders, who are the “faces” of the parties, give speeches in the streets, among other activities.