Advance Payments for 2025 Rice Foretell Rising Prices; Big Buyers Moving Early; Farmers Spurred to Grow More

By Kengo Tabe and Haruna Fukushima / Yomiuri Shimbun Staff Writers

16:28 JST, May 16, 2025

The planting of rice to be harvested in 2025 is getting into full swing, but despite an increase in the land area for production this year, the grain’s retail price looks set to remain high.

Japan Agriculture Cooperatives (JA) — which buys and collects rice — major restaurant chains, and other entities have already started moves to buy rice before it is harvested later this year. JA branches across Japan have noticeably increased their provisional payments to producers based on the estimated value of new rice above last year’s level, so the price of rice grown in 2025 could remain stubbornly high.

On May 9, a buyer at the product department in charge of procuring rice for Yoshinoya Holdings Co., visited a rice farmer in Takasaki, Gunma Prefecture. He had a request for the farmer, from whom the major beef bowl restaurant chain operator has been directly purchasing rice for about 10 years, without going through JA or similar organizations.

“Are there any other farmers you could possibly introduce me to?” he asked. As well as seeking an introduction to potential new business partners, he also urged the farmer to increase rice production.

Yoshinoya Holdings, which uses about 25,000 tons of rice annually, ran into trouble last year when supplies from wholesalers slowed. In a sweeping bid to secure a stable rice supply, Yoshinoya Holdings plans to increase direct purchases of rice grown in 2025 from farmers and is reaching out to production areas in which it previously conducted little business, such as Kyushu and the Chugoku region.

Zensho Holdings Co., which operates the Sukiya beef bowl restaurant chain, also plans to buy more rice directly from farmers.

JA taking action

JA, whose branches buy about 40% of all rice for use as a staple food from farmers, also is bolstering its efforts to lock in supplies of the grain. “Rice for use as a staple food” refers to rice that is eaten as rice, as opposed to rice that is consumed after being processed into other products, such as sake or rice crackers.

JA branches typically announce the size of the provisional payments they will make to rice growers around summer. But this year, the timing of the announcement has been brought forward to around spring, and these payments are higher than they were for rice grown in 2024.

Niigata Prefecture boasts the highest rice production volume in Japan. The National Federation of Agricultural Cooperative Associations’ (Zen-Noh) Niigata branch has told farmers it plans to set the minimum provisional payment for 60 kilograms of 2025 Koshihikari rice at ¥6,000 above the amount offered for the same rice grown in 2024. Fukui Prefectural Agricultural Cooperative also has compiled a plan to hike the guaranteed minimum amount paid to farmers by ¥4,800.

An official of the cooperative explained that this increase was to ensure farmers “could produce rice with peace of mind” at a time when the costs of materials and fuel were climbing. However, a source at JA suggested another reason was at play. “If we don’t increase the provisional payments, we won’t be able to collect enough rice,” the source told The Yomiuri Shimbun.

A final decision on the provisional payments will be made in around summer. It is possible that this amount could increase further, depending on the circumstances.

Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries Minister Taku Eto has acknowledged that bumping up the provisional payments could have a flow-on effect.

“Of course, this will have an impact on the price of 2025 rice that hits the market,” Eto said at a press conference after a Cabinet meeting Tuesday.

Farmers keen to grow rice

The current trading price for 60 kilograms of 2024 rice on average across all brands is ¥24,500. This figure marked a record high.

The desire of farmers to grow rice is rising as a result of the higher prices. According to the agriculture ministry, the total land area cultivated for rice for use as a staple food as of the end of January was expected to reach 1.282 million hectares, an increase of 23,000 hectares, or 1.8%, from the previous year. Farmers in 19 prefectures, including Niigata and Hokkaido, intend to boost production. This year will register the largest increase in land set aside for growing staple rice since the system for reducing rice paddy land — a policy introduced in the 1970s to curb overproduction and keep prices from falling too low — was abolished in 2018.