China’s National People’s Congress: Signs of Fraying Hidden in Bullish Target Setting

The strategy of the administration of Chinese President Xi Jinping appears to be for Beijing to hurry to solidify its footholds in both the economic and military spheres and work to increase its international influence, while fending off pressure from the administration of U.S. President Donald Trump.

At the National People’s Congress, China’s parliament, Premier Li Qiang delivered the government work report. For the third year in a row, the government left its annual gross domestic product growth target unchanged at “around 5%.”

This can be called a bullish target setting amid mounting pressure from the United States, such as the Trump administration imposing two additional tariffs totaling 20% in the 1½ months, as well as China’s own prolonged real estate recession.

If trade friction with the United States intensifies, it is inevitable that the external demand that has driven the Chinese economy will suffer a serious blow. Under such circumstances, Li emphasized a stance of giving top priority to the expansion of domestic demand and stimulating consumption.

The government intends to expand its issuance of ultra-long-term special government bonds, which have a long redemption period, and to use part of the funds to support replacement purchases of automobiles, home appliances and other items.

However, consumers are becoming increasingly thrifty due to economic stagnation. Public security has also deteriorated, and indiscriminate stabbing incidents have occurred in various parts of the country.

To achieve both economic development and social stability, it is essential to improve social security systems such as medical care and pensions, as well as taking immediate economic stimulus measures.

However, the proposed military budget allocates a record high of about ¥36.76 trillion, up 7.2% from the previous year, a rate of increase that exceeds the target rate for economic growth. China will strengthen “new quality combat capabilities” using artificial intelligence and other advanced technologies.

Meanwhile, corruption is rampant within the Chinese military, and the involvement of one high-ranking officer after another is being uncovered. What exactly is happening behind the military expansion? It is essential to continue closely monitoring movements in the Chinese military that affect the security environment around Japan.

The government work report cited China’s commitment to true multilateralism and its role in addressing global issues and resolving regional conflicts as its diplomatic achievements. The report also pointed to China’s policy of promoting multilateral cooperation through the China-led Belt and Road initiative for a massive economic zone.

The report clearly aims to highlight the differences between the Chinese government and the Trump administration, which has declared an “America First” policy and announced an end to economic aid to emerging and developing countries. The report also tries to increase China’s leadership in the international community.

The report clearly stated that China opposes “hegemonism and power politics,” with the United States in mind. However, many countries perceive the fact that China threatens Taiwan militarily and refrains from condemning Russia for its aggression against Ukraine as “power politics.”

(From The Yomiuri Shimbun, March 7, 2025)