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Ahead of the three-year mark since the start of Russia’s aggression against Ukraine, U.S. President Donald Trump has launched efforts to mediate negotiations between the two countries. Can he end the aggression and pave the way for peace?
Trump held telephone talks with Russian President Vladimir Putin and they agreed to immediately begin negotiations toward ending Russia’s aggression against Ukraine. Trump then called Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy and informed him of the details of the talks with Russia.
The U.S. and Russian leaders would meet in Saudi Arabia for direct talks in the “not too distant future,” Trump said.
Since the start of Russia’s aggression, former U.S. President Joe Biden had refused to negotiate directly with Putin, but Trump has changed that policy.
The United States and Europe have so far tried to stop Russia’s aggression by imposing economic sanctions on Moscow, while providing weapons to Ukraine, which aims to regain its territory. However, Russia has avoided isolation through such means as economic support from China and troops being deployed from North Korea.
Therefore, Trump has probably judged that he cannot resolve the deadlock in a conventional way.
However, concerns remain that Trump will go over Ukraine’s head to proceed with negotiations with Russia and make significant concessions to the country.
Trump has already indicated that Ukraine will unlikely be able to recover all of the territory occupied by Russia.
This is tantamount to accepting the outrageous acts of Russia, which has been openly engaging in aggression against another country, even though it is a permanent member of the U.N. Security Council, which is responsible for international peace and security.
Putin is pressing Ukraine to withdraw its troops from the four regions in eastern and southern Ukraine that Russia has declared to be annexed, and to abandon its aim for membership in the North Atlantic Treaty Organization.
If such a forcible change to the status quo is allowed to become an established fact, it could lead to similar situations in other regions, such as East Asia. If that happens, the international order based on the rule of law will collapse.
Anyone — not just Trump — could achieve a ceasefire by handing Russia the “spoils of war.” It is hoped that through his signature deal-making, Trump will fend off Putin’s unreasonable claims and advance the negotiations while respecting Ukraine’s sovereignty and territorial integrity.
Nevertheless, negotiations cannot be left to the United States alone. Even if a ceasefire is achieved, numerous problems will remain, including how to reconstruct Ukraine afterward and guarantee its security. Europe and Japan should continue their involvement in Ukraine.
