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The civil war has intensified in Myanmar and the humanitarian crisis continues to worsen. Even if a general election is pushed ahead under such circumstances, it may not lead to a return to civilian rule.
It has been four years since the military overthrew the pro-democratic government led by Aung San Suu Kyi in a coup.
The military’s leader Min Aung Hlaing, the commander in chief, has extended the state of emergency declaration in order to continue the regime in which the military exercises control over the country. He has said that a general election will be held by the end of the year with the aim of a transition to a civilian government.
However, Suu Kyi is still in custody after being sentenced to prison, and the pro-democracy party she led has also been stripped of its party status. The military may be trying to remove the pro-democracy party and hold a general election to allow the pro-military party to win so that the military can continue to hold substantial power.
The military cannot avoid the criticism that it is trying to use the election to justify military rule.
Last year, the military conducted a census to compile a list of eligible voters, but it was unable to implement the survey in many areas mainly due to the ongoing armed struggle of ethnic minorities and pro-democracy forces in various regions.
In addition, more than 6,200 civilians and others have died in the military and police crackdown since the coup, and more than 3.5 million people have been forcibly displaced. The military has announced that the current population is about 51.32 million, but figures making up about 40% of the total are estimates.
Holding a general election based on a sloppy survey cannot win the trust of people at home or abroad.
The military’s repeated bombing of anti-military forces while claiming that “peace and stability” are necessary to hold a general election is problematic.
Anti-military forces have intensified their offensive, including by capturing local military headquarters in the northeast and west of the country. In response, the military has indiscriminately bombed houses, schools, hospitals and other buildings.
It is quite natural that Japanese Foreign Minister Takeshi Iwaya issued a statement on Feb. 1 strongly condemning the military, saying that “many innocent civilians are killed and wounded daily by airstrikes and other acts of violence.” The United States, Britain, Australia and other countries have also issued a similar joint statement.
Japan intends to call for the release of Suu Kyi and others and cooperate in achieving dialogue among all parties. Another issue to address is how to deliver necessary assistance to Myanmar. Japan must lead discussions at the United Nations and other multilateral meetings.
China has shown its support for the holding of a general election and is increasing its support for the military. Beijing may be trying to protect its economic interests, such as the natural gas pipelines that run from Myanmar, but it should first use its influence to stop violence by the military.
