Fears of a Long Mideast War Drive Crude Oil Prices Skyward

By Miho Naganuma and Takeru Kise / Yomiuri Shimbun Staff Writers

19:01 JST, March 10, 2026

NEW YORK — With speculation rife that the Iran conflict could drag on, crude oil prices have surged.

Since the Strait of Hormuz — a key route for shipping oil — was effectively blocked, concerns about a stable crude supply have grown daily. A prolonged conflict in Iran could cause prices to increase further and a downturn in the global economy.

‘Short-term’ rise

“Short term oil prices, which will drop rapidly when the destruction of the Iran nuclear threat is over, is a very small price to pay for U.S.A., and World, Safety and Peace,” U.S. President Donald Trump posted on his social media account on Sunday evening.

As Trump’s Republican Party is facing midterm elections this autumn, the president wants to avoid high oil prices. The public is already upset about rising prices.

The Trump administration is also on edge. U.S. Energy Secretary Chris Wright said Sunday in an interview with CBS News that the price increase was due to “emotional reactions and fear that this is a long-term war” and suggested prices would ease within weeks.

Optimism fades

Aboard Air Force One on Saturday, Trump touched on the possibility of deploying ground troops in Iran. The U.S. State Department on Sunday ordered government personnel stationed in Saudi Arabia to evacuate the country.

Iran announced Sunday that anti-American hardliner Mojtaba Khamenei, the son of the late Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, would be the country’s new supreme leader.

Hope faded that the conflict would end soon, and crude oil prices surged over 30% on the New York futures market. Prices show little sign of stabilizing.

With the de facto blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, tanks for storing crude oil temporarily are also nearing their limit. Gulf oil producers such as Kuwait have begun reducing output.

Reuters reported Sunday that Iraq’s oil production in its main southern oilfields has fallen by 70%, citing industry sources. Some analysts suggest that if the conflict escalates, oil prices could surpass the all-time high of $147 per barrel recorded in July 2008.

Release of strategic reserves

Japan relies on the Middle East for over 90% of its crude oil imports, though as of the end of December it held domestic oil reserves equivalent to 254 days of consumption.

“We have not received reports indicating an immediate impact on Japan’s oil demand,” said Chief Cabinet Secretary Minoru Kihara at a press conference on Monday.

However, high crude prices could accelerate inflation, which had been subsiding. An Economy, Trade and Industry Ministry official said the government “may decide to release oil reserves to prevent price increases,” and the government appears to have checked with oil wholesalers about how to transport the oil from storage to prepare for such a release.

“The surge in crude oil prices will cause gasoline prices and the cost of all petroleum products to rise, significantly impacting the Japanese economy and people’s lives,” said Ken Koyama, senior managing director of the Institute of Energy Economics, Japan.