New LDP Leadership Changes Prospects for Ruling Coalition

By Takahiro Yamamoto and Yamato Komoda / Yomiuri Shimbun Staff Writers

16:14 JST, October 6, 2025

Sanae Takaichi’s election as the new leader of the Liberal Democratic Party has changed the dynamics among opposition parties regarding whom the ruling LDP-Komeito bloc will join forces with.

The Japan Innovation Party, previously seen as a strong candidate to join the coalition, has shifted to a wait-and-see stance, while the Democratic Party for the People remains cautious, making an early coalition agreement difficult.

Vision for 2nd capital

“Reaching a coalition agreement in a short period is highly difficult,” JIP coleader Fumitake Fujita said Sunday on a TV program.

Should Takaichi approach the JIP for talks, Fujita said it would be hard to agree on a coalition before the upcoming extraordinary Diet session, stressing the importance of policy alignment in areas such as economic policy and the Constitution.

The JIP aims to enact legislation for the “vision for the second capital,” a plan to create a metropolis that can take over the functions of ministries and agencies in case of large disasters. The second capital would also lead economic growth, second only to Tokyo.

This vision is predicated on the realization of the JIP’s flagship Osaka metropolis plan.

During the LDP presidential campaign, JIP leader Hirofumi Yoshimura cited the realization of this vision and reductions in social insurance premiums as conditions for joining a coalition.

There was a plan within the JIP to reach a party-head-level agreement before an extraordinary Diet session and move on to a coalition, based on the premise that Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries Minister Shinjiro Koizumi would win the race. Koizumi and the JIP both have a “reformist mindset,” according to a senior JIP member.

The JIP had proposed that it would focus on policy discussions over how to allocate candidates in constituencies, to which Koizumi agreed.

However, that scenario collapsed with Takaichi’s victory. Few JIP executives seem to have built a relationship with her, and some JIP members believe the possibility of their party joining the ruling coalition has faded away.

Adding to the gloom, Komeito leader Tetsuo Saito told Takaichi on Friday that his party opposed the second capital vision. In the House of Representatives election last year, Komeito lost all four seats it contested against the JIP in Osaka Prefecture. Komeito hard-liners insist that creating a coalition without discussing which constituencies each party will contest is impossible.

Coalition ‘unthinkable’

Some DPFP members are relieved that coalition talks between the JIP and the ruling bloc have come to a halt. If the ruling parties regain a majority in both houses of the Diet, the DPFP might be unable to pressure the ruling coalition to implement measures agreed upon last December, such as the abolition of the provisional gasoline tax rate and a review of the income tax exemption threshold.

DPFP acting representative Motohisa Furukawa praised Takaichi on a TV program Sunday, saying, “Our economic policies to increase take-home pay are very close to hers.”

Party leader Yuichiro Tamaki is on good terms with LDP Supreme Advisor Taro Aso. Under the administration of former Prime Minister Fumio Kishida, Aso explored a coalition with the DPFP behind the scenes.

On Friday, Aso held talks with DPFP Secretary General Kazuya Shinba in Tokyo. Aso played a key role in Takaichi’s victory, and that is seen as a boon for future cooperation between the two parties.

However, the DPFP has so far aimed to expand its party strength while achieving results by working with the ruling parties on individual policies.

“The framework of the government should be formed carefully,” Tamaki said Sunday in Koriyama, Fukushima Prefecture. “Even in Europe, negotiations take several months.”

Meanwhile, Tomoko Yoshino, president of the Japanese Trade Union Confederation (Rengo) which supports the DPFP, said a coalition was “unthinkable.”

Relationship from old institute

The JIP’s possible entry into the ruling bloc has raised concerns among the Constitutional Democratic Party of Japan, the largest opposition party, as it would become difficult to pass a no-confidence motion against the Cabinet, leading to “a further decline in our presence,” a veteran CDPJ member said.

CDPJ President Yoshihiko Noda is senior to Takaichi at the Matsushita Institute of Government and Management, a public interest incorporated foundation that develops future leaders, and Noda interviewed Takaichi during her admission process.

Noda has described Takaichi as “a politician with backbone.” Some CDPJ members hope that the relations of trust between them could help facilitate policy implementation.