‘Anti-Takaichi’ Votes Shifted to Ishiba in Runoff

By Masashi Nakata and Akihisa Ota / Yomiuri Shimbun Staff Writers

20:16 JST, September 28, 2024

In the runoff in the Liberal Democratic Party’s presidential election, former party Secretary General Shigeru Ishiba scored a come-from-behind victory over economic security minister Sanae Takaichi — who won the most votes in the first round — by scraping together support from Diet members who were apprehensive about the policies of Takaichi, seen as the party’s most hawkish member.

The struggle to win Diet members’ votes in Friday’s runoff was extremely fierce, with a camp led by outgoing Prime Minister Fumio Kishida splitting from those of the party’s Vice President Taro Aso and Secretary General Toshimitsu Motegi.

Miscalculation

“I have been engaged in this job for 38 years, but I have never experienced a presidential election like this.”

Ishiba made this remark about his dramatic come-from-behind finish at a post-election press conference.

The Ishiba camp’s basic strategy was to aim to come out on top in the votes cast by rank-and-file members and members of affiliated groups in the first round of voting, and then to gather the support of Diet members in a runoff, with the backup of the “voice of the provinces.”

However, Ishiba collected only 108 of the votes cast by rank-and-file members, while Takaichi took a one-vote lead with 109. Among Diet members, Ishiba garnered 46 votes while Takaichi collected 72. The combined total was 181-154 in Takaichi’s favor.

In the runoff, however, Ishiba garnered a whopping 189 votes cast by the Diet members, enabling him to overtake Takaichi in the end.

Aso, the leader of a 54-member faction, made the first move in anticipation of a runoff between Ishiba and Takaichi.

On Thursday evening, Aso told the Diet members of his faction that they as a faction would support Takaichi in the runoff.

Ishiba and Aso have been estranged for approximately 15 years, since Ishiba demanded that Aso step down as prime minister, an office he held in 2008-09.

On Wednesday, Aso confirmed with Motegi, with whom he often shares tacit understandings, that they would stand together against Ishiba, bringing in some former members of the now-defunct Motegi faction to support Takaichi with them.

It is believed that Aso intended to create momentum within the party in favor of Takaichi, thereby gaining a favorable position in what he expected would be the mainstream group in the party.

On Thursday, Aso called Kishida and made a tentative overture saying, “Let’s go with the triumvirate of Aso, Motegi, and Kishida again.”

Sense of crisis

Meanwhile, Kishida felt a growing sense of crisis over Takaichi’s expanding support. Takaichi had publicly stated that she would visit Yasukuni Shrine after becoming a prime minister.

Kishida, who attaches importance to diplomacy as prime minister, could not overlook a situation that would decisively deteriorate Japan’s relationships with China and South Korea.

Kishida told those close to him, “We have to make it clear that Takaichi would be no good.” He had former senior members of the now-defunct Kishida faction call the former faction members on Friday morning, and instruct them to cast their votes for “the one other than Takaichi in a runoff.”

Former Prime Minister Yoshihide Suga also rallied to support Ishiba, along with those Diet members who have no factional affiliation and are in support of him.

In the previous presidential election, in 2021 Suga, along with Ishiba and former Environment Minister Shinjiro Koizumi, supported digital minister Taro Kono.

Cautionary note

Takaichi’s hard-line conservative stance had raised a sense of alarm not only within the LDP but also within Komeito, the party’s ruling coalition partner.

One veteran lawmaker observed, “There must have been votes that went to Ishiba after [Diet members] saw the results of the first round of voting, which they thought would bring about a mess.”

Ishiba, who has not held a key party or cabinet post for a long time, was known for not hesitating to criticize past administrations, with some in the party criticizing him for “firing guns from behind.”

A senior government official said, “When running his administration, Ishiba should take to heart that he only won the support of Diet members when they were faced with the ‘ultimate choice’ between him and Takaichi — which does not mean that he has popularity within the party.”