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Nanako Sudo / The Yomiuri Shimbun Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba, left, speaks during a joint press conference with U.S. President Donald Trump on Feb. 7 in Washington.
By Satoshi Ogawa
8:00 JST, May 3, 2025
In early April, when U.S. President Donald Trump announced he would impose a 10% tariff on almost all countries, plus an additional 14% “reciprocal tariff” on Japan, political pundits forecast that Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba would be put into a corner.
But to the contrary, Trump’s tariffs have helped Ishiba so far.
Before the tariff issue arose, Ishiba was already in a corner — one of his own making. After it was learned that the prime minister had given gift certificates worth ¥100,000 to each of 15 Liberal Democratic Party members of the House of Representatives with whom he had dined at his official residence, harsh criticism erupted against him. His Cabinet’s approval rating suffered a sharp drop to 31% in a Yomiuri Shimbun poll conducted in mid-March. It was eight points down from the poll in February, and his worst level since taking office last fall.
However, once Trump announced his tariffs, news coverage became dominated by that issue. After Ishiba declared the tariffs to be tantamount to a national crisis, LDP rivals and senior opposition party members alike have held back from criticizing him so they can avoid being seen as a hindrance.
In ordinary times, ambitious LDP rivals are keen to attack the incumbent prime minister to open the way to taking power themselves. But you can no longer find such rivals now that more and more LDP members think they have no option but to face the House of Councillors election in July with Ishiba as prime minister.
Opposition parties have been also reluctant to attack him. They postponed Ishiba’s testimony at the House of Representatives’ Deliberative Council on Political Ethics in connection with an investigation into the gift certificate scandal. In addition to that, senior members of the Constitutional Democratic Party of Japan suggested they might not submit a contemplated no-confidence motion against him even though — as the ruling coalition has been in the minority since the general election held in October last year — it is believed a no-confidence motion could be passed by the opposition parties, which would force Ishiba to resign.
Another reason for this shift is that the opposition parties calculate that it serves their political interest to campaign against Ishiba in the coming upper house election.
Having said that, the results of tariff negotiations with Trump may change the situation drastically. Trump suspended the 14% additional tariff for 90 days until early July. Ishiba’s aides hope the negotiations between Japan and the United States will be concluded by the Group of Seven summit meeting in Canada in mid-June.
If Trump will agree to lift all the tariffs on Japan, including a 25% tariff on automobiles, it may help Ishiba survive. His Cabinet’s approval rating may then rise, which could make it hard for opposition parties to submit a no-confidence motion just before the June 22 end of the ordinary Diet session. It could even enable the LDP to win the upper house election.
However, if Japan cannot obtain Trump’s agreement by early July, then the 14% additional tariff will return after the 90-day suspension, the 25% tariff on automobiles won’t be repealed, and the situation surrounding Ishiba must deteriorate. As the upper house election campaign is scheduled to start on July 3, lack of progress in tariff talks would surely be a strong headwind for the LDP. And if the LDP loses in the election, it will become very difficult for Ishiba to stay in office.
In 2010, then Prime Minister Yukio Hatoyama fell from power after losing the trust of then U.S. President Barack Obama over the issue of relocating the U.S. Marine Corps’ Futenma Air Station from Ginowan, Okinawa Prefecture.
This summer, Trump’s tariffs will inevitably affect the fate of the Ishiba administration.
Political Pulse appears every Saturday.
Satoshi Ogawa
Satoshi Ogawa is the editor of the Political News Department of The Yomiuri Shimbun.
