Japan’s LDP Presidential Candidates Time Announcements of Runs; Better to Gain Attention Now or Quietly Build Support?

The Yomiuri Shimbun

6:00 JST, August 23, 2024

Potential candidates in the Liberal Democratic Party’s presidential election can roughly be divided into two groups on the issue of when to announce they are joining the race to replace Prime Minister Fumio Kishida as party leader.

Former economic security minister Takayuki Kobayashi got the ball rolling Monday when he became the first to officially announce his candidacy. Kobayashi got the jump on a group of LDP members likely to soon declare that they will throw their hats in the ring in a bid to build wider support ahead of the election.

Taking a contrasting approach, former Environment Minister Shinjiro Koizumi and LDP Secretary General Toshimitsu Motegi are prominent among a group of potential candidates who intend to run but are biding their time while they closely assess the election landscape.

The official campaign period will begin on Sept. 12 and the election will be held on Sept. 27.

Kobayashi met with Kishida at the Prime Minister’s Office on Wednesday to directly report that he had entered the race to become LDP leader.

“I’m starting as someone with no name recognition at all. I’m going to be incredibly active on the campaign trail,” Kobayashi said to reporters after the meeting, indicating he intends to go full-throttle from the get-go to raise his profile.

Kobayashi has appeared on multiple TV shows, and on Tuesday and Wednesday he visited many lawmakers’ offices at Diet members’ buildings in Tokyo’s Nagatacho area to drum up further support for his campaign.

Chief Cabinet Secretary Yoshimasa Hayashi, who will soon declare his candidacy, has also been plagued by a lack of name recognition. Despite stints in key posts such as foreign minister and currently serving as the government’s top spokesperson, Hayashi has languished near the bottom of multiple media outlets’ opinion polls on who the public thinks is the most suitable choice to be the next LDP president. Hayashi reportedly intends to soon announce his candidacy in a bid to boost his presence in the contest.

Two high-profile candidates are poised to soon formally announce their entry into the election. Former LDP Secretary General Shigeru Ishiba likely will do so Saturday, and digital minister Taro Kono likely will follow suit Monday. Ishiba and Kono are both on track to secure nominations from 20 LDP lawmakers, which is a requirement to enter the race, and apparently intend to accelerate moves to gain the support of additional Diet members.

Keeping their powder dry

In contrast, Koizumi and Motegi are still carefully considering the timing of their candidacy announcements.

When reporters at the LDP’s head office asked Koizumi on Wednesday whether he intended to run for the party’s highest post, he kept his cards close to his chest. “I’ll refrain from giving an answer,” Koizumi said.

Motegi met with lawmakers affiliated with his party faction at his office at a Diet members’ building that same day and discussed his approach to the presidential election. On Tuesday, Motegi had dinner with former Prime Minister Yoshihide Suga in Tokyo to exchange opinions on the situation inside the party.

According to some observers, the patient approach adopted by Koizumi and Motegi has a purpose. “They are building support behind the scenes, but by holding off on making a quick announcement, they aim to differentiate themselves from the others,” one observer suggested.

Some other potential candidates are struggling to secure enough nominations and have yet to chart a concrete path toward formally announcing their bids.

“I’m moving forward step by step, but I still must work hard and battle on,” former Chief Cabinet Secretary Katsunobu Kato said to reporters at the LDP’s head office Wednesday.

Foreign Minister Yoko Kamikawa returned from an official visit to India that same day and held talks with lawmakers who support her at a Diet members’ building. Economy, Trade and Industry Minister Ken Saito and former Internal Affairs and Communications Minister Seiko Noda also are scrambling to lock in enough nominations to enter the race.

Takaichi nearing decision

As she readies her own candidacy, economic security minister Sanae Takaichi met with lawmakers who support her at a dormitory for House of Representatives members in Tokyo’s Akasaka area on Wednesday evening.

After the meeting, House of Councillors lawmaker Hiroshi Yamada told reporters that Takaichi was closing in on securing the 20 nominations needed to join the race. “She’s on target to get enough. I think she’ll probably make an announcement on her decision regarding her candidacy next week,” Yamada said.

Lower house member Akimasa Ishikawa added, “I felt her resolve and she urged me to stand alongside her.”

If Takaichi does indeed run for LDP president, it would be her second attempt to win the post following her first bid in the 2021 election.