Prospective LDP Presidents Compete to Secure 20 Nominations; Weakening Factions Drive up Number of Potential Candidates

By Masashi Nakata and Shinji Abe / Yomiuri Shimbun Staff Writers

17:53 JST, August 19, 2024

More than 10 lawmakers have expressed their intent to run in the ruling Liberal Democratic Party’s presidential election in September — an extraordinarily large number.

Prime Minister Fumio Kishida’s announcement not to seek reelection as party president generated the mood among party members, including incumbent Cabinet members, that they should proactively throw their hats in the ring.

Competition is intensifying among prospective candidates to secure the prerequisite 20 nominations from party lawmakers.

“Please help me if I run [for the election],” said Chief Cabinet Secretary Yoshimasa Hayashi to a junior lawmaker in the Kishida faction over telephone on Saturday. Hayashi is a key figure in the faction, which has begun dissolution procedures.

Hayashi has conveyed his intention to run in the election to Kishida and others. He plans to attend a meeting of faction members on Tuesday, stepping up his moves for the expected race.

Kishida expressed his intention not to run for party president race on Wednesday. The following day, he called on Cabinet members to make open and active discussions without hesitation, a statement that triggered Hayashi and others to make moves and express their intention to run.

The same day, digital minister Taro Kono, 61; economic security minister Sanae Takaichi, 63; Economy, Trade and Industry Minister Ken Saito, 65, and Foreign Minister Yoko Kamikawa, 71, mentioned their intention to run. Former Chief Cabinet Secretary Katsunobu Kato, 68, conveyed his intention to join the race during a meeting with former LDP Policy Research Council Chairperson Koichi Hagiuda. Both Kato and Hagiuda were members of former Prime Minister Yoshihide Suga’s Cabinet.

Former economic security minister Takayuki Kobayashi, 49, officially announced his candidacy at a press conference on Monday. Regarding the prospect of a free-for-all race in the party presidential election, Kobayashi told reporters during a visit to the city of Tsubame, Niigata Prefecture, on Saturday, “I think it would be good if motivated people will run in the race and make use of the occasion to debate solid policies.”

Hesitancy to commit

It seems to be more difficult than ever to secure the 20 nominations needed to run in the election.

A total of 367 LDP lawmakers from both the House of Representatives and the House of Councillors are eligible to take part in the presidential race. However, many Diet members are apparently hesitant to nominate a candidate because they may then be seen to be close to a particular candidate. Competition is also accelerating due to the difficulty of tightening the controls on lawmakers amid the current trend of moving away from factions.

A mid-ranking LDP lawmaker said they had received requests for support from LDP Secretary General Toshimitsu Motegi, 68, and a lawmaker supporting former Environment Minister Shinjiro Koizumi, 43, as well as Kono and Takaichi. “It’s difficult to decide how to respond,” the Diet member said.

Kamikawa, Takaichi and former Internal Affairs and Communications Minister Seiko Noda, 63, will have to compete against each other if they wish to win support from female lawmakers. In addition, Takaichi and Kobayashi have an overlapping conservative support base.

Support base

In response to the scandal over political fundraising parties involving LDP factions, the Kishida faction, the faction formerly led by the late Prime Minister Shinzo Abe and the faction led by former LDP Secretary General Toshihiro Nikai, have begun procedures to legally cease to exist as political organizations. The faction headed by LDP General Council Chairperson Hiroshi Moriyama has already submitted an application to disband to the Internal Affairs and Communications Ministry.

On the other hand, the 54-member faction led by party Vice President Taro Aso is maintaining its status as a political organization, while the faction headed by Motegi has transformed itself into a policy-based group made up of about 40 members.

Even among factions that have decided to disband, those within the same factions maintain ties with each other. Therefore, Kono will rely on lawmakers within the Aso faction for nominations and support, Hayashi and Kamikawa will seek support from the Kishida faction, and Kato and Motegi from those in the Motegi faction.

The fact that multiple members of individual factions aim to run in the presidential race is a proof of their diminishing strength. But a junior LDP member expressed concern, saying if it does become a faction-centered election campaign, it could be seen as a “revival of faction-based politics.”

In the case where many run in the presidential race, it is assumed that there will be no successful candidate in the first round of voting and a runoff ballot will take place. Therefore, prospective candidates’ factions and their support bases are expected to step up moves to collaborate in the runoff vote.

“It will be best to disperse factions’ ballots in the first round of voting and jump on the bandwagon in the runoff,” said a veteran lawmaker, adding that it is unclear at this point who are the favored candidates.