State of LDP factions / Curtain Falls on Japanese Politician Ishiba’s Run Leading Own Faction

The Yomiuri Shimbun

18:36 JST, November 30, 2020

This is the second installment in a series examining the current state of the Liberal Democratic Party by looking at factions that were in the spotlight during the party’s presidential election this year.

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“I would like to resign as [faction] leader to take responsibility,” said former Liberal Democratic Party Secretary General Shigeru Ishiba, reading from a prepared text on Oct. 22 during an extraordinary general meeting of his LDP faction, the Suigetsu-kai, causing an uproar.

The 15 participants at the meeting made such comments as, “Your defeat in the LDP presidential election is everyone’s responsibility” and “The Suigetsu-kai depends on Chairman Ishiba.”

When Ryosei Akazawa, a Cabinet Office state minister, emotionally urged Ishiba to change his decision, another participant jeered, “This kind of matter is for him to decide on his own.” Akazawa shouted back, “Shut up and listen!”

Sitting next to Ishiba was Ichiro Kamoshita, secretary general of the faction. “We should accept our leader’s decision,” he said to everyone, and the meeting ended.

Ishiba suffered a crushing defeat in September’s LDP presidential election, which was his fourth bid for the party leadership. He failed to overtake Yoshihide Suga and Fumio Kishida and finished last in the race. Ishiba won only 26 LDP Diet members’ votes, adding just seven to the 19 Diet members who belong to his faction.

Ishiba’s support from Diet members had increased from 25 votes in his first presidential race to 34 in his second and 73 in his third, but the latest race put him back where he started. While he relied on prefectural LDP votes, he fell far behind Suga in those votes as well.

“No matter how often I visit them to support their election campaigns, they never support me when I need it,” said Ishiba, who seemed shocked. “They never care what happens afterward.”

Under circumstances in which Suga was expected to win by a large margin, some faction members including former Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries Minister Yuji Yamamoto were opposed to Ishiba’s candidacy, but Ishiba ran anyway, ignoring such calls.

On Sept. 14, the day of the presidential election, as Ishiba headed for an elevator after his defeat was confirmed, Yamamoto cited Ishiba’s favorite book about Japan’s defeat in World War II, saying: “You are just like Japan fighting a losing war. How will you take responsibility?”

Ishiba did not reply.

After the election, Ishiba met separately with faction members and heard their opinions. Seven young members in their third term of office as House of Representatives members who were elected when Ishiba served as the secretary general of the LDP asked him to continue to run for LDP president in the future, with Hiroyuki Togashi reportedly having said, “I will support you to the end.”

However, experienced lawmakers had differing responses, such as, “You won’t be able to run in the election as you can’t get enough recommendations” and “You should take responsibility.”

While Ishiba had tried to expand support by criticizing the government, experienced lawmakers felt that the method was at its limit. As politicians, they also felt pressure as they have long been in outside the LDP mainstream positions.

The Ishiba faction was created by lawmakers hoping for “Prime Minister Ishiba.” Kamoshita, who played a major role in forming the faction, told his close aides after the latest presidential election: “The project for making Ishiba the prime minister is now over. I’m like a trustee taking care of ending the project.”

Ishiba, knowing the feelings of experienced lawmakers who have long supported him, decided to resign as faction leader.

Unconvinced, young lawmakers who strongly want to keep the faction alive are increasingly dissatisfied, with one saying: “This is a coup by experienced lawmakers. If they don’t like the faction, they can leave it.”

About a month has passed since Ishiba abruptly announced his resignation. The faction is still in a state of confusion.

Kamoshita, whom Ishiba asked to take over, refused to do so, saying, “Some people are opposed to it.”

The faction’s regular meetings held every Thursday have been suspended. On their own, middle-ranking and young lawmakers have held meetings to exchange information.

Other factions are taking swift action. On the day Ishiba announced his resignation, Kishida instructed some senior members of his faction to approach Ishiba faction members they are acquainted with.

Members of the Ishiba faction have recently received calls from members of various factions, who say such things as, “How are you doing these days?” and “If you need something, just tell me.”

Kamoshita, who was once a member of the Nukaga faction, the predecessor to the Takeshita faction, held a meeting with young faction members, which prompted speculation that he was trying to attract young lawmakers and “sell them to the Takeshita faction at a high price.”

While the leadership of the Ishiba faction has started to weaken, Ishiba is still popular among the public. According to a former Cabinet member, LDP members believe that Ishiba could become a party presidential candidate again depending on how Suga manages the government.

On Nov. 20, Ishiba held a fund-raising party for himself at a hotel in Tokyo.

“The media say perhaps it’s the end for Shigeru Ishiba, but big deal,” he said. “As long as I don’t think it’s the end, it’s not.”

Nonmainstream start-up

The Ishiba faction was created in September 2015 by members of a group that comprised lawmakers who supported Ishiba in the 2012 LDP presidential election. Unlike the other six factions of the LDP such as the Hosoda faction and the Takeshita faction, the Ishiba faction is not related to any faction created just after the party was formed in 1955. Ishiba thus dubbed his faction a start-up.

The official name of the Ishiba faction is Suigetsu-kai. This name comes from a Zen term that represents the moon’s shadow reflected on water, meaning selflessness and free spirit. Under the slogan of a “genuine policy group,” the faction published a book in January 2018 in which members wrote about policies in their respective areas of expertise.

The faction is also active in new fields, such as selling illustrations of Ishiba on a free communication app. Ishiba has repeatedly made remarks critical of former Prime Minister Shinzo Abe and has long been in a nonmainstream position within the party.

Even so, many middle-ranking faction members are familiar with policies, with Ken Saito picked as agriculture, forestry and fisheries minister and Takashi Yamashita tapped as justice minister, for example.

Currently, 19 members belong to the faction, including Health, Labor and Welfare Minister Norihisa Tamura and Tatsuya Ito, a former state minister for financial services. The number of faction members remains almost unchanged from when it started with 20 members.