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The Yomiuri Shimbun Seichi Miyawaki works at a firefighting organization in Nagashima, Kagoshima Prefecture, on Jan.16.
Tomohiro Sawai and Ken Nakao / Yomiuri Shimbun Staff Writers
2:05 JST, March 9, 2025
This is the first installment of a series that follows the waves of change taking place in Kyushu and nearby Yamaguchi and Okinawa prefectures ahead of 2050.
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While a pessimistic forecast says that Japan as a whole will wane due to the decline in its population, the situation in Kyushu, Yamaguchi Prefecture and Okinawa Prefecture paints a different picture.
Fertility rates there are relatively high, and there are three prefectures — Fukuoka, Kumamoto and Okinawa — which are seen as sources of future growth.
The area is close to other parts of Asia, is a food supply base and is full of potential.
Hiroya Masuda, vice chairman of the Population Strategy Council, which comprises private-sector experts, said, “We would like Kyushu to lead Japan in terms of improving its birth rate and economy.”
Luring young people back
Even outside Kumamoto and the surrounding areas, where the influx of semiconductor-related companies is leading to dramatic changes, various reforms are being carried out.
One such example is found in Nagashima, Kagoshima Prefecture, where the town government created a system to lure back its young people.
In many municipalities in Kyushu, Yamaguchi Prefecture and Okinawa Prefecture, the total fertility rate — the average number of children that a woman between the ages of 15 and 49 has — from 2018 to 2022 was relatively high.
Cities, towns and villages in the area accounted for about 90% of the top 50 municipalities nationwide in terms of total fertility rate. Nagashima was ranked fourth with a total fertility rate of 2.11.
Seichi Miyawaki, 26, who works for a local firefighting organization, said he returned to the town five years ago. “As I know many people here, it is good that I can devote my efforts toward this local community,” he said.
The town comprises islands where yellowtail fish farming, agriculture and the production of shochu spirits are thriving. It is connected to the main island of Kyushu by a bridge.
The town’s total fertility rate had been just above the replacement level of 2.07, at which the population remains stable. However, the lack of a high school has been an issue for the town as many young people leave and will not return.
In response, the town government in 2016 created a system where it subsidizes student loan repayments for young people who resettle in the town. It is mainly financed by the furusato nozei hometown donation system — in which people donate money to specific municipalities other than their own place of residence in exchange for gifts and a reduction in their tax payments.
The scholarship-like system is named “Buri Shogakukin” (yellowtail scholarship), after the migratory fish species.
As of fiscal 2023, among the 106 young people who had since started repaying their student loans, 55 had returned to the town.
Miyawaki, who had enrolled in a vocational school in Kumamoto City, decided to work in his hometown. He married a woman in the town and now is a father of one.
“In raising my child, it is easy to ask for help from our relatives. I think I made a good choice,” he said.
The Population Strategy Council released in April last year a report about the future prospects for municipalities based on the declining population of young women.
The report said that 744 of the 1,729 municipalities nationwide, more than 40%, are at risk of eventual extinction.
In a similar report 10 years ago, Nagashima was among those listed, but was not in the 2024 report.
Nagashima Mayor Takeshi Kawazoe said, “If young generations come back, we can create a sustainable local community.”
If movements like the one in Nagashima spread, there is hope for maintaining the nation’s population.
Fewer municipalities at risk
The state-run National Institute of Population and Social Security Research estimates that Japan’s population, which was 126.15 million in the 2020 national census, will fall to 104.69 million in 2050. However, the impact on each region will vary.
Among the 744 municipalities regarded as at risk of eventual extinction, only 76 were in Kyushu or Okinawa Prefecture, the fewest of any region, less than half the figure in Tohoku, the worst region.
In addition, among the 65 municipalities nationwide seen to be “self-sustaining,” 34 were in the area: nine in Fukuoka Prefecture, seven in Kumamoto Prefecture, one in Kagoshima Prefecture and 17 in Okinawa Prefecture.
In Fukuoka Prefecture, the municipalities with the optimistic prediction include Kanda and those around Fukuoka City.
In Kumamoto Prefecture, they include the towns of Kikuyo, Mifune, Kashima and Mashiki, as well as the village of Minami-Aso. Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. (TSMC), one of the world’s largest manufacturers of semiconductor chips, has opened a base of operations in Kikuyo.
Nevertheless, such municipalities are still the minority.
The total population of Kyushu, Yamaguchi Prefecture and Okinawa Prefecture, which was 16.29 million in 2000, fell to 15.59 million in 2020. An estimate says the number will further fall to 12.45 million in 2050.
The total fertility rate in 2023 was higher than the national average of 1.2 in all prefectures in the area, though all were below the replacement level. Okinawa Prefecture’s rate was the highest in the nation at 1.6. It was 1.49 in Nagasaki and Miyazaki prefectures and 1.48 in Kagoshima Prefecture.
“The pace of population decline in Kyushu is slow and the region is doing quite well,” said Masuda. “There are positives such as Kikuyo Town, where TSMC came.
“I want people in the Kyushu region to try to achieve [total fertility rates of] 1.8 to 2.0 in the future. If the goal is achieved, we can expect the effect to spill over into the Chugoku and Shikoku regions, and it will lead to a future where Kyushu can lead the whole of the nation economically.”
Construction delays
Kyushu has many advantages. It is a hub for semiconductor and auto-related businesses. Its agricultural output accounts for more than 20% of the national total. The climate is relatively mild. The rush hour congestion is much less severe than in Tokyo and surrounding areas.
Residential areas are often close to nature and there are rich food cultures. In general, the quality of life is high.
However, relatively few big companies have head offices in the area and so people have limited options in terms of work. Many young people have left the region, mainly for Tokyo.
The population is concentrated in Fukuoka City, where the average total fertility rate from 2018 to 2022 was just 1.19.
Kyushu suffers from labor shortages. Therefore, there have been delays to construction and improvements to infrastructure such as roads and ports.
Hideyuki Okano, a director of the Kyushu Economic Research Center, said, “Going forward, it is important to generate an environment conducive to having and raising children and improve the infrastructure.”
It is necessary to further develop the strong points and overcome the weak points, improving not only economic conditions but also the happiness of the residents.
To realize this, the Kyushu Governors Association and regional business circles are required to have bold ideas and capabilities for implementing necessary measures.
