Evacuating Residents during Complex Disasters Remains a Challenge; Low Response to Noto Rain Warnings a Concern

By Yurika Akazawa / Yomiuri Shimbun Staff Writer

16:48 JST, October 21, 2024

The damage caused by the Noto Peninsula Earthquake on Jan. 1 and the record rainfall that hit the same area last month highlighted issues in terms of how residents are called to evacuate in the event of a complex disaster.

After the Noto Peninsula Earthquake, the Japan Meteorological Agency announced new standards for heavy rain warnings, advisories and landslide warnings in the prefecture’s 14 municipalities. Under the new standards, a warning would be issued when the observed rainfall level reached only 70%-80% of the old threshold. In Wajima and Suzu, a heavy rain warning was issued at 6:26 a.m. on Sept. 21, and evacuation orders were given that morning.

However, only 3.7% of the population of both cities went to evacuation centers. After the Jan. 1 earthquake, 55.8% evacuated. The fact that warnings were issued more frequently under the new standards “had created the mood of: ‘It’s issued so often,’ or ‘Again?’” a Suzu city government official said.

Nobuo Fukuwa, a professor emeritus at Nagoya University who specializes in earthquake engineering said, “With the severity of the landslides [as a result of the earthquake], when it was raining, we should have warned the residents that the situation was ‘damn serious,’ compared to after past earthquakes.”

In Nichinan, Miyazaki Prefecture, the warning threshold for rainfall was lowered to 70% after the August earthquake that also triggered JMA to issue a Megathrust Earthquake Attention advisory. The city’s disaster prevention specialists warned of the risk of post-quake heavy rain at elementary schools and neighborhood community associations by showing photos of disaster areas in the Noto Peninsula.

Toshitaka Katada, a project professor at the University of Tokyo who specializes in disaster information studies, warns that municipalities must explain the risk of complex disasters at every opportunity.