University Team Creates Heatstroke Prediction Website; Forecast Shows Expected Number Of Heat Hospitalizations 6 Days Ahead

The Yomiuri Shimbun

13:19 JST, July 22, 2024

A team of researchers at the Nagoya Institute of Technology is now providing six-day forecasts of the number of people who will be taken to the hospital by ambulance due to heatstroke each day.

These forecasts, which cover Tokyo and seven other prefectures — including Aichi, Osaka and Fukuoka — are publicly available on their website. The team intends for these forecasts to help prevent heatstroke and be useful for emergency medical care centers.

The team analyzed weather data from 2013-19 and information on about 140,000 people who were taken to the hospital to come up with a formula.

They also take into account people’s physical characteristics, such as the increased risk they face immediately after the end of the rainy season when they are not yet accustomed to the heat, as well as the percentage of elderly residents in each region.

All of this information is combined with weekly weather forecasts from the Japan Meteorological Agency, which are updated daily, to create their heatstroke forecasts.

The website displays a map of Japan on which prefectures are color coded to indicate the number of expected hospitalizations on a given day, from “24 or less” (pink) to 100 or more” (purple). A line graph indicates forecasts for up to six days in advance.

The wet bulb globe temperature (WBGT) heat index, which is based on temperature and humidity, is an existing indicator of the risk of heatstroke, but predictions for this are only available two days in advance.

Because the Nagoya team’s predictions are available up to six days ahead, they make it easier for people to plan outings and outdoor events, and they give firefighters and medical institutions more time to prepare to receive patients, they said.

Research team member Prof. Akimasa Hirata has experience in predicting COVID-19 case numbers using artificial intelligence as part of a Cabinet Secretariat project.

“I hope that the predictions will be used in various fields,” he said at a press conference.

The predictions can be found on their website: https://heatstroke.jp/