Govt Panel Warns of Major Sea of Japan Quake;Probability Seen as 18% in Next 30 Years

The Yomiuri Shimbun

15:46 JST, June 29, 2025

The government’s Earthquake Research Committee announced Friday that active submarine faults in the central to southern Sea of Japan off the coast from Hyogo to Toyama prefectures have a 16% to 18% probability of generating a magnitude-7 or larger earthquake within the next 30 years.

Although the Noto Peninsula northern coast fault zone, which produced the magnitude-7.6 Noto Peninsula Earthquake in January 2024, was rated at almost 0% probability for another such event in that time frame, the committee urged caution because surrounding faults could still trigger major quakes.

In response to the Noto Peninsula Earthquake, the committee released preliminary fault-location data last August. This time it assessed 23 offshore active faults capable of producing magnitude-7 or larger events that could bring shaking of lower-6 or stronger on Japan’s seismic intensity scale and tsunami at least 1 meter high.

Dividing the stretch of coast into eastern and western areas, the committee calculated that the eastern area, which has 14 faults including the Noto Peninsula northern coast fault zone that is capable of causing magnitude-7.8 to magnitude-8.1 events, has a 12% to 14% probability of a major quake. In the western area, which has nine faults with maximum potential quakes of around magnitude-7.7, the probability is 4% to 6%. In 1927, the western area experienced the magnitude-7.3 North Tango Earthquake, which claimed 2,912 lives.

Committee chair Naoshi Hirata, a University of Tokyo professor emeritus, commented at a press conference: “A probability exceeding 10% is extremely high. Please do not relax, thinking, ‘An earthquake won’t strike for a while.’ Instead, prepare through disaster drills and other measures.”