Japan Prime Minister’s Influence Falls Short in Upper House; Future Strategies to be Vital For Dealing With Opposition

The Yomiuri Shimbun

16:54 JST, March 31, 2026

Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi was forced to give up on passing the fiscal 2026 budget proposal within fiscal 2025, a priority she had strongly pursued since the ruling Liberal Democratic Party’s landslide victory in the last House of Representatives election.

The power of Takaichi’s influence, backed by the LDP’s overwhelming win in the February election, apparently fell short in the House of Councillors. The ruling parties are faced with the reality of a so-called twisted Diet — the ruling coalition of the LDP and the Japan Innovation Party holds a minority in the lower house, but they are minority ruling parties in the upper house.

Strategies for dealing with the upper house will likely be vital for the government and the ruling parties in implementing future policies.

At an LDP executive meeting on Monday, Takaichi, who also is LDP president, voiced her frustration with the opposition parties, which stood as a “wall” in the upper house.

“It’s regrettable that we were unable to pass the budget proposal within the fiscal year. My sole intention was to ensure the public’s peace of mind and build a strong economy, but we were unable to share this vision with the opposition parties,” she said.

The LDP secured 316 seats in the February lower house election, more than two-thirds of the total of 465. Takaichi believed that “public opinion is on our side,” according to a source close to the prime minister, and encouraged LDP executives to act, leading to the high-paced deliberations on the budget proposal.

Once Takaichi’s determination became clear, the mood within the LDP changed completely. When the lower house was dissolved at the start of the ordinary Diet session, most had believed that passing the budget proposal within fiscal 2025 would be difficult.

The lower house Budget Committee compressed the customary 70 to 80 hours to question the government to about 59 hours, passing the fiscal 2026 budget proposal on March 13.

This was done in keeping with the schedule proposed by the LDP in the upper house — which considered that passage within the fiscal year was possible. Takaichi had raised expectations, making the disappointment all the greater when the goal could not be reached.

Half the goal

Takaichi continued to insist on passage within fiscal 2025 partly because of a sense of urgency that “once we give up, the wheels will come off, deliberations will stall and passage will be delayed,” according to a senior official at the Prime Minister’s Office.

If the budget proposal is not put to a vote in the upper house by April 11, it will automatically be approved. The government and ruling parties aim to have it passed and approved in the upper house by early April, before it is automatically approved.

Immediately after the lower house election, there was a widespread view within the government and ruling coalition that passing the budget proposal — whose submission to the Diet had been delayed by about a month — would likely occur around the Golden Week holidays in May. However, they have managed to make up for the delay to some extent.

A source close to Takaichi emphasized this achievement, stating: “If the prime minister hadn’t taken action, the passage would have been delayed even further. We achieved half of our goal.”

However, it is also a fact that Takaichi’s influence, bolstered by the landslide victory in the lower house election, proved ineffective in the upper house.

Takaichi’s side, which maintains high Cabinet approval ratings, had calculated that the LDP could lead the upper house deliberations by leveraging public opinion. However, there were limits to this approach in the upper house, where it lacks a numerical majority.

Although the LDP in the upper house continued to seek passage within fiscal 2025, it was difficult to even negotiate the deliberation schedule without the consent of the majority opposition.

Arguments for coalition expansion

Going forward, the LDP in the upper house intends to focus on efforts to build a majority, including cooperation with smaller parliamentary groups, while aiming for the earliest possible passage of the budget proposal.

This is because the ruling coalition falls four seats short of a majority in the upper house, and it must wait until the next upper house election in the summer of 2028 for an opportunity to regain ground.

Masaji Matsuyama, chairperson of the LDP Members’ General Assembly in the upper house, met on Monday with Conservative Party of Japan leader Naoki Hyakuta and others inside the Diet Building and secured their support for the fiscal 2026 budget proposal, in exchange for discussions on such matters as foreign nationals.

The LDP has also been in touch with Team Mirai.

However, the ruling parties must accept opposition demands on a case-by-case basis to secure support for each budget proposal or bill. In addition, when cooperation is sought on a bill-by-bill basis, the ruling parties find it difficult to take the lead in scheduling negotiations leading up to a vote.

From the second half of the current Diet session through the extraordinary session in the autumn, the ruling parties will face deliberations on bills that are likely to spark strong confrontations with the opposition, such as the bill to establish the national intelligence council and related bills to legalize the use of maiden names.

Although the ruling parties hold the card of “re-passage” with a two-thirds majority in the lower house, it is not realistic to use this option frequently given the opposition’s resistance and the time required.

A senior LDP lawmaker argued, “To secure a stable majority, we need to expand the coalition framework, and we should explore the possibilities.”

Some in the LDP want to repair relations with the Democratic Party for the People, with whom a rift emerged during the budget talks. Therefore, attention is also being paid to whether Takaichi, who mistrusts the DPFP, will change her mind.