University of Tokyo Professor: Japan Must Prepare for Worst in Relations with U.S.; ‘Issues Unlikely to Be Resolved Soon’

The Yomiuri Shimbun

6:00 JST, May 17, 2025&

University of Tokyo Prof. Ryo Sahashi in an interview with The Yomiuri Shimbun urged Japan to prepare for the worst in regard to U.S. government moves not only during the administration of President Donald Trump but likely for 10 years or more.

The following is excerpted from the interview conducted by Yomiuri Shimbun Staff Writer Yujiro Okabe.

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The United States and China are finally standing at the starting line of negotiations now that they have agreed to mutually cut additional tariffs. The U.S. government has been under pressure from U.S. businesses such as retailer Walmart, which warned [a halt on imports from China] would lead to empty shelves. It can be said that China won the first round of the battle through sheer perseverance.

China is different from what it was during the first Trump administration. It has introduced various restrictions on foreign companies and been preparing for the economy to be weaponized as the United States has been doing. Both high and low waves are expected in the U.S.-China negotiations going forward, and I don’t think those negotiations will end during the 90-day period. However, it is possible that they will make a deal based on the trade pact they signed during the first Trump administration with some conditions favorable to the United States added to it.

Regarding the Taiwan issue, the United States may end up agreeing on a new joint statement that is favorable to China. On the Ukraine issue, it might even strike a deal that is favorable to Russia. What we are seeing is a leaderless world brought about by a loosening of both U.S. leadership and rules.

The postwar international order has been supported by the U.S. market, the U.S. dollar and U.S. alliances. These have been strategic assets for the United States as well as their allies, but Trump regards them as liabilities, as he thinks that whatever can be gotten from them is less than what they cost. The international order has been deteriorating slowly as also seen in the case of former U.S. President Joe Biden advocating a “Buy American” policy. What we are seeing now is a “fast-forwarding” of that. Nobody can keep up because it’s all moving too fast.

I think this trend won’t change even with the next U.S. presidential election. We should remain cautious for 10 years or more. Japan needs to assume the worst before taking any action. It’s a world in which risk management can no longer be conducted unless bad scenarios are central considerations.

It’s undeniable that Japan is in a better position than other countries when it comes to the tariff negotiations. The Trump administration is demanding its allies to contribute economically and to make efforts in defense to maintain regional balance, and expectations for Japan are large in both fields.

However, we mustn’t be optimistic. It’s better not to think that everything will be resolved in 90 days, including [the additional tariffs on] vehicles.

At a time when the Japan-U.S. trade pact [that was agreed on during the first Trump administration] has been easily overturned, you can’t expect everything to be settled if another deal is signed. Japan may need to take a strategy of putting off negotiations and not playing all our cards at once.

The shaking of the world order may also bring opportunities for new development in diplomacy. For example, it’s said that [if a leftist administration is formed after South Korea’s presidential election], Japan-South Korea relations will worsen. But as confidence in the United States falls, there will surely be things on which the two countries can collaborate. Japan should not be engaged only in managing its relations with the Trump administration; it should also show strategic flexibility and take new steps in its global diplomacy.

Ryo Sahashi

Sahashi received his PhD from the Graduate Schools for Law and Politics at University of Tokyo. He served as a visiting associate professor at Stanford University and a visiting research fellow at Seoul National University. He became a professor at University of Tokyo in January. His specialty is international politics. He is 47.