Yomiuri Shimbun Poll: Cabinet Support Unchanged Despite Japan-U.S. Summit; Ishiba at Key Moment for Administration

The Yomiuri Shimbun

18:15 JST, February 17, 2025

The approval rating for the Cabinet of Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba was 39% in a nationwide poll conducted by The Yomiuri Shimbun from Friday to Sunday, almost unchanged from 40% in the previous survey a month prior.

The Cabinet’s disapproval rating was 43%, down from 46% in the previous survey conducted on Jan. 17-19, indicating that the Japan-U.S. summit on Feb. 7 was well received. Nevertheless, that did not lead to an increase in the approval rating.

The most common reason for supporting the Cabinet was “No one else is good,” given by 44% of the respondents, while the most common reason for disapproving was “cannot expect good policies,” given by 29%.

The number of respondents who said they approve of the Japan-U.S. summit meeting as a whole was 51%, higher than the 38% who said they disapprove.

Regarding the Cabinet’s revision of the “¥1.03 million barrier,” the threshold for taxable annual income, 35% of respondents said the barrier should be raised to ¥1.78 million, 33% said it should be raised to the range between ¥1.5 million and ¥1.6 million, and 23% said the ¥1.23 million figure decided by the Cabinet is appropriate. The Democratic Party for the People advocates for increasing the figure beyond ¥1.23 million.

Fifty-eight percent of the respondents were “for” and 34% were “against” the introduction of free high school tuition without income-based limits, including at private high schools, a proposal being discussed by the Liberal Democratic Party, Komeito and the Japan Innovation Party.

Fourteen percent of respondents said they think that the ongoing Diet debate on the issue of “politics and money” will restore trust in politics, while 79% said they do not think so.

Regarding support for political parties, 26% backed the LDP, down from 28%; 8% backed the Democratic Party for the People, down from 13%; and 8% backed the Constitutional Democratic Party of Japan, up from 5%. The approval ratings were 4% for Reiwa Shinsengumi, unchanged from the previous survey; 3% for Komeito, down from 4%; 3% for the Japan Innovation Party, unchanged; and 2% for the Japanese Communist Party, also unchanged. The percentage of respondents with no party affiliation accounted for 39% of support, up from 34%.

Diplomacy fails to boost approval

The poll showed that although 51% of respondents gave a favorable rating for the Japan-U.S. summit meeting, support for the Cabinet remained almost unchanged from the previous survey. This indicates that the diplomatic activity has not boosted the administration’s support. With the government and minority ruling bloc holding talks with the opposition to win approval for the proposed fiscal 2025 government budget, Ishiba is facing a critical moment.

Asked if they think the prime minister will be able to build mutual trust with U.S. President Donald Trump, 28% of respondents said they think so, while 61% said they do not think so. The percentage of Cabinet supporters who responded with the former was 53%, slightly more than half, while only 9% among non-Cabinet supporters did so.

Ishiba is facing many domestic issues. The budget bill must be approved by the House of Representatives by March 2 to pass by the end of the fiscal year, with this week being the climax of discussions with opposition parties on revisions.

The prime minister has shown a willingness to accept the opposition parties’ request for revisions to the budget bill because his ruling bloc is a minority. Fifty-nine percent of respondents said they approve of this attitude, while 22% said they do not approve.

The focus will be on the results of the ruling bloc’s talks with the Japan Innovation Party and the Democratic Party for the People.

The percentage of respondents who said they were in favor of free high school tuition, which is being sought by the JIP, was 58% overall, with 53% of the total coming from supporters of the ruling bloc, 65% from supporters of the opposition parties and 57% from respondents with no party affiliation.

As for raising the income tax exemption threshold, the ruling party and the Democratic Party for the People will soon resume talks. In addition to the ¥1.23 million limit approved by the Cabinet and the ¥1.78 million limit sought by the DPFP, such proposals as ¥1.56 million have also been floated. Among supporters of the ruling bloc, the largest share of 39% said “¥1.23 million is appropriate,” while 33% said it “should be raised to ¥1.5 million.”

The percentage of respondents who said they “feel” the burden of high prices on their household budgets was 93%, including those who said they feel it “a lot” or “a little.”

“As there had been low expectations for the summit meeting [before it occurred], the approval seemed high in the poll,” said Yu Uchiyama, a professor of political science at Tokyo University. “However, some were concerned about whether the prime minister could foster a relationship of trust with Trump, and the meeting did not help increase the Cabinet’s approval rating.”

The survey was conducted among eligible voters age 18 or older using the random digit dialing method. A total of 1,033 responses were received. Of the 760 landlines called, 402 people responded to the survey, and of the 1,793 mobile phones called, 631 people responded. The response rate was 53% for landlines and 35% for mobile phones.