Momentum for Constitutional Revision to Drop After LDP, Komeito’s Election Defeat; Ishiba Determined to Continue Efforts

The Yomiuri Shimbun

21:00 JST, November 4, 2024

Sunday marked the 78th anniversary of the promulgation of Japan’s Constitution.

The Liberal Democratic Party and its coalition partner Komeito lost a significant number of seats in the recent House of Representatives election. As a result, the proportion of those in the chamber in favor of constitutional amendment fell below two-thirds, which is the minimum necessary to initiate a draft bill for amendment in the Diet.

Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba has expressed his intention to initiate an amendment of the Constitution next year, tying it in with the 70th anniversary of the LDP’s founding. However, momentum for constitutional amendment appears certain to dwindle.

“As [the LDP] will mark the 70th anniversary of its founding next year, we’ll move toward advancing constitutional revision, one of our party principles,” said the prime minister in a news conference on Oct. 28, the day after the lower house election. “We will make active efforts to win support from more than two-thirds [of lower house members], moving beyond the framework of ruling and opposition parties.”

The party’s defeat in the lower house election, however, has made its path toward realizing constitutional revision more difficult.

Prior to the election, those who were positive about constitutional revision — namely members of the LDP, Komeito, the Japan Innovation Party, the Democratic Party for the People and some non-affiliated parliamentary groups — made up 334 seats in the lower house, exceeding 310 or two-thirds of the total 465 in the lower house.

However, as a result of mainly the Constitutional Democratic Party of Japan’s drastic increase in seats, the number held by the pro-constitutional revision forces fell to 285.

In the election, the Conservative Party of Japan, who called for constitutional amendment in election campaigning, won three seats. Former members of the LDP’s now-defunct Abe faction, who ran in the election as independents, also secured seats. But even if their seats are added to the pro-amendment member total in the chamber, it still fails to reach the two-third mark.

CDPJ leader Yoshihiko Noda said at a news conference on Friday that his party would “discuss the Constitution.”

“If there is a place for discussions, we’d like to have proper ones, but not on the assumption that the Constitution will be revised,” Noda said.

At the lower house Commission on the Constitution during the ordinary Diet session this year, the LDP presented a framework for a contingency clause, which would extend the tenure of Diet members in the event of a major disaster among other events. Komeito, the JIP and the DPFP agreed to start drafting a proposal.

The LDP’s Headquarters for the Promotion of Revision of the Constitution in September came up with major discussion points for the creation of a contingency clause and the explicit stipulation of the existence of the Self-Defense Forces in a meeting, with then Prime Minister Fumio Kishida in attendance.

Kishida stated his intention to have a new LDP president take over constitutional revision, with a view to initiating a draft bill at the Diet before the House of Councillors election in the summer, while pro-constitutional amendment forces held more than two-thirds of upper house seats.

After taking office, Ishiba expressed his intention to take over Kishida’s efforts. In his policy speech at plenary sessions of both houses of the Diet on Oct. 4, he said, “I expect constructive discussions so that a draft bill [for a constitutional amendment] will be initiated by the Diet while I’m in office.”

However, the failure by the LDP and Komeito to secure a majority in the lower house has likely made it difficult for the two parties to focus their attention on revising the Constitution. They will have to walk on thin ice, as cooperation from opposition parties will be essential for them to pass the draft budget and other bills through the Diet.

The lower number of seats held by LDP and Komeito in the lower house is also expected to reduce the number of their members in its Commission on the Constitution, likely making it more difficult to promote discussions on constitutional revision under the initiative of the two parties.

When it comes to individual items under consideration, however, it cannot be said that even pro-amendment forces are in step with one another. While the LDP and the JIP are positive about explicitly stipulating the SDF in the Constitution, Komeito has remained cautious.

A pro-amendment LDP member expressed concern to the current situation, saying “If Diet discussions over constitutional amendment make little progress, enthusiasm to revise the Constitution within our party could lose momentum.”