LDP Presidential Vote Could Go to Runoff, Surveys Suggest; Overall Tally Tips Toward Takaichi, Ishiba

The Yomiuri Shimbun

20:00 JST, September 16, 2024

There will likely be no clear winner in the upcoming presidential election for the Liberal Democratic Party, leading to a runoff between the top two finishers, according to recent Yomiuri Shimbun polls.

The polls surveyed the party’s rank-and-file members and party supporters, as well as Diet members. Nearly 20% of voters were undecided or would not disclose their choice, and this bloc could alter the election set for Sept. 27.

Candidates will compete for a total of 734 votes, half of which are cast by Diet members and half by rank-and-file members and party supporters.

If no one secures a majority, there will be a runoff between the top two finishers. This will be voted on by the 367 Diet members, with the LDP’s prefectural chapters also getting one vote each, for a total of 47 additional votes.

The survey of the party’s rank-and-file members and party supporters was conducted in all 47 prefectures on Saturday and Sunday, and responses were received from 1,500 people who were confirmed to be voters in the presidential election.

When asked which candidate they intend to vote for, 26% chose former LDP Secretary General Shigeru Ishiba, 67, followed closely at 25% by economic security minister Sanae Takaichi, 63. In third at 16% was former Environment Minister Shinjiro Koizumi, 43.

Lower down were Foreign Minister Yoko Kamikawa, 71, and former economic security minister Takayuki Kobayashi, 49, both at 6%; Chief Cabinet Secretary Yoshimasa Hayashi, 63, at 5%; digital minister Taro Kono, 61, at 3%; and LDP Secretary General Toshimitsu Motegi, 68, at 2%. Former Chief Cabinet Secretary Katsunobu Kato, 68, was chosen by 1% of respondents.

Nine percent of respondents did not say whom they would vote for.

Extrapolating from the poll’s sample size, rank-and-file members and party supporters appear likely to give 97 votes to Ishiba, 94 to Takaichi, 60 to Koizumi, 22 to both Kamikawa and Kobayashi, 18 to Hayashi, 11 to Kono, seven to Motegi and three to Kato.

The other survey confirmed the voting intentions as of Sunday of 352 of the 367 LDP Diet members through interviews and other means. Koizumi was supported by 45 members, followed by Kobayashi at 40, Hayashi at 35 and Motegi at 33. Takaichi was backed by 29 members, Ishiba by 26, Kono by 24, Kamikawa by 23 and Kato by 21.

Neither chairman of the Diet chambers was included in the survey.

Ninety-one LDP Diet members had not yet decided whom to vote for or did not disclose their intentions.

In the projected tally for all voters, Takaichi and Ishiba were tied with 123 votes, closely followed by Koizumi with 105 votes.

Beneath them were Kobayashi with 62 votes, Hayashi with 53 votes, Kamikawa with 45 votes, Motegi with 40 votes, Kono with 35 votes and Kato with 24 votes, trailing the top three candidates by a wide margin.

Takaichi, Ishiba and Koizumi received less than 20% of the vote in the surveys, suggesting no candidate will secure a majority in the first round of voting and there will be a runoff.