Upper House Election: Japan PM Ishiba, Noda Set Low Targets for Victory in Upper House Election; Will Ruling Coalition’s Majority be Preserved?

By Yujiro Okabe and Kota Iga / Yomiuri Shimbun Staff Writers

16:00 JST, July 4, 2025

The key numbers in the upcoming House of Councillors election are 50 and 63.

For the ruling coalition of the Liberal Democratic Party and Komeito, 50 seats is the minimum they can win and maintain their majority in the upper house. For the Constitutional Democratic Party of Japan and other opposition parties, winning 63 seats would mean they have claimed the majority up for grabs, though the ruling coalition would still have an overall majority.

LDP ‘on back foot’

Campaigning began Thursday for the upper house poll that will have a major bearing on the ability of Ishiba to steer the government and could even impact the framework of the administration.

Constituencies where only one seat is being contested will be among the factors that determine whether the ruling and opposition parties can achieve their election targets and who the overall winner of the July 20 poll is.

Ishiba insisted the ruling coalition of the Liberal Democratic Party and Komeito were prepared to be responsible parties and sought support for the administration in the election, during a stump speech in Amagasaki, Hyogo Prefecture, on Thursday.

“We must be responsible and think about the next generation,” said Ishiba, who is also LDP president. “The LDP and Komeito will be responsible.”

But during an earlier speech given in Kobe, Ishiba also acknowledged the opposition parties’ criticisms of his party’s plan to provide a ¥20,000 cash handout per person as part of measures to combat rising consumer prices. “This isn’t recklessly throwing money around or anything of the sort,” Ishiba insisted, although his comment gave the impression that he was in a bind over the issue. A worried senior LDP official added, “The party is on the back foot.”

The LDP’s defensive posture is epitomized by the number of seats that Ishiba has set as constituting a victory in the election. Ishiba hopes the LDP and Komeito can maintain their majority in the 248-seat upper chamber, which would require holding at least 125 seats. Given that the ruling parties hold 75 seats that are not up for grabs, Ishiba’s target would be achieved if the coalition clinches 50 of the 125 seats being contested. This means the ruling camp would still reach the target even if they lose 16 of their 66 seats that are on the line. The only time the coalition has won fewer than 50 seats in an upper house election since 2000 was in 2007, when the ruling parties were defeated during the first administration of then Prime Minister Shinzo Abe.

In the previous upper house election in 2022, then Prime Minister Fumio Kishida also set a target of the ruling bloc securing an overall majority. The coalition needed to win 55 seats to reach that threshold and eventually bagged 76 seats. In the 2016 upper chamber election, the ruling coalition clinched 70 seats after Abe, who was in his second stint as prime minister, had set a goal of capturing a majority of the seats being contested.

Given this, some LDP members have grumbled about Ishiba’s goal of maintaining a majority in the chamber. “That’s far too low,” one LDP heavyweight told The Yomiuri Shimbun. “Even if we achieve that target, we’ll face a tougher struggle in the upper house election to be held three years from now.”

However, the LDP’s heavy defeat in last month’s Tokyo Metropolitan Assembly election has muzzled many bullish projections for the upper house poll. “It’ll be a tough battle scraping to 50 seats,” an LDP member with Cabinet experience said, expressing a sense of crisis that is spreading among the party.

If Komeito can hold the 13 seats it won in the previous election, the LDP would need to win only 37 seats – the same number it won in the 2007 election. However, Komeito’s organizational strength is showing signs of being on the wane.

Cabinet ministers who gave speeches across the nation Thursday indicated that they were aware of the predicament facing the LDP. “This is a tough situation,” Chief Cabinet Secretary Yoshimasa Hayashi said, while Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries Minister Shinjiro Koizumi said, “I want to blow away the mood that suggests the LDP could lose.”

The prime minister also lamented to his close aides, “I’m trying to carefully explain our policies to the public, but it isn’t getting through.”

A minority in both houses

The prospects for the post-election political landscape are unclear. Even if the ruling parties maintain a majority in the upper house, they will still be a minority ruling bloc in the House of Representatives. Although some observers have suggested a scenario in which some opposition parties are brought into the coalition framework to stabilize the administration, doing so would not be easy.

If the ruling bloc were to win fewer than 50 seats, it would hold a minority in both houses and the opposition parties would control the management of Diet affairs. Enlarging the coalition could offer the administration a lifeline in such a situation, but this option would have its drawbacks. The widely held view is that opposition parties would take advantage of the ruling bloc’s weakness and difficulties would inevitably emerge.

The CDPJ has also set a low threshold for victory. CDPJ leader Yoshihiko Noda has asserted that the party’s “minimum goal” is to ensure the ruling parties win fewer than half of the seats up for grabs in the election. While the assumption is that the CDPJ will not achieve this goal singlehandedly, the opposition parties would do so if they win a combined 63 seats. Noda has recently mentioned the opposition parties harbor aspirations of preventing the ruling bloc from holding an overall majority in the upper chamber, but this would require the opposition camp to secure 77 seats.

Noda’s setting of a low election goal was clearly aimed at lowering the possibility of his accountability being in question after the election. During a stop in the town of Kunitomi, Miyazaki Prefecture, on Thursday, a reporter asked Noda if the opposition bloc should try to strip the ruling parties of their majority in the upper house.

“That would be very challenging,” Noda replied. “It would be absolutely miraculous. It isn’t something I can talk about lightly.”