Incumbent Tokyo Governor Leads as Election Day Approaches; 20％ of Survey Respondents Still Undecided

The Yomiuri Shimbun

13:14 JST, July 1, 2024

Incumbent Tokyo Gov. Yuriko Koike is in the lead in the Tokyo gubernatorial election to be held on Sunday, followed by former House of Councillors member Renho and former Akitakata Mayor Shinji Ishimaru, according to an opinion poll conducted this past weekend.

Former Air Self-Defense Force chief Toshio Tamogami, 75, has struggled to gain support, according to The Yomiuri Shimbun’s analysis of the opinion poll and interviews with voters. However, more than 20% of the respondents were undecided, so the situation could change.

The Liberal Democratic Party and Komeito support Koike, 71. Renho, 56, is backed by the Constitutional Democratic Party of Japan — which she left shortly before the start of the gubernatorial election — and the Japanese Communist Party. The election has therefore created a virtual showdown between the ruling and opposition parties.

By party affiliation, Koike had secured the backing of 70% of the LDP supporters and 90% of the Komeito supporters in the survey. Koike also had the favor of 20% of CDPJ supporters.

Renho had support from more than 60% of the CDPJ loyalists and less than 70% of the JCP supporters.

Among independents, who make up nearly 50% of the eligible voters in Tokyo, 30% supported Koike in the survey. More than 10% of independents supported Renho or Ishimaru, 41, with Ishimaru slightly ahead. By gender, Koike was favored by both men and women, while there was limited support among women for Renho or Ishimaru.

As for issues they wanted discussed, with multiple answers allowed, 79% of respondents picked aging and welfare policies, followed by economic and employment at 78% and dealing with disasters such as earthquakes and typhoons at 77%.

Tackling the declining birthrate was a concern for 67% of the respondents, as was supporting child rearing and the education and support of young people. Both of these issues have been key focuses for the candidates.

More than 60% of respondents said they highly evaluated Koike’s achievements during her two terms and eight years as governor, while less than 30% said they did not.

The survey was conducted from Friday to Sunday using phone numbers selected via random digit dialing. A total of 743 responses were received from 1,283 households where voters live, for a response rate of 58%.

A record 56 candidates are running in the election.