Japan Must Confirm Defense Emergency Before Funding Evacuations, But Doing So Could Be Highly Political

The Yomiuri Shimbun

1:00 JST, March 29, 2025

The government’s timing in confirming a “situation where armed attacks are anticipated” around Japan, will be crucial for the smooth evacuation of residents. Possible situations are believed to include extremely high tensions between China and Taiwan.

The central government will pay for the evacuation of residents, in keeping with the Civil Protection Law, but to do so it will need to acknowledge there is a “situation where armed attacks are anticipated,.” However, the decision to confirm such an emergency could be highly political, according to a source close to the government.

Should residents be evacuated from the Sakishima Islands to prefectures on Kyushu and Yamaguchi Prefecture, private transport companies such as Japan Airlines and All Nippon Airways will play a major role. If these companies find it difficult to ensure the safety of their employees, they might hesitate to act. Consequently, one Diet member in the ruling Liberal Democratic Party elected from Okinawa Prefecture says that the central government should recognize a “situation where armed attacks are anticipated,” as soon as it sees any signs of an emergency. Many people agree with this view.

Under a “situation where armed attacks are anticipated,” the government can issue an order to stand by order to the Self-Defense Forces, which means Japan is moving one step closer to preparing for war. Since this could trigger criticism from other countries that Japan is unilaterally escalating the situation, the government will have to handle the situation while trying to gain the understanding of the international community.

The chilly relationship between the central government and Okinawa Prefecture also presents difficulties for the plan.

The New Ishigaki Airport in Ishigaki, Okinawa Prefecture, from which many residents on the Sakishima Islands are supposed to evacuate, is being considered as a possible special-use airport where the central government will extend runways and develop other facilities in preparation for emergencies. However, the Okinawa prefectural government, which manages the airport, has its reservations, so New Ishigaki has yet to be designated a special-use airport.

Okinawa Gov. Denny Tamaki, who has been at odds with the central government over U.S. military base issues in his prefecture, suggested Tuesday that he would keep his distance from an evacuation plan whose drafting is being led by the central government. “If the central government tries to move toward an emergency situation, it will draw public opposition. I also don’t understand why the central government is rushing to push forward with the plan,” he told reporters Tuesday.