Concerns over Oil Supply: Thoroughly Prepare for Risk of Prolonged Crisis

Editorial

15:00 JST, April 1, 2026

Due to the situation in Iran, concerns over the stability of oil supplies have intensified in Japan, which relies on the Middle East for more than 90% of its crude oil. It is crucial for the government to make thorough preparations for the risk of a prolonged crisis.

The government on Tuesday held a meeting of related ministers regarding the situation in the Middle East and confirmed that it would move forward with measures to ensure a stable supply of oil products.

Crude oil is used not only to produce petroleum products such as gasoline and diesel fuel, but also to make a wide range of related products including plastics, synthetic fibers and rubber. Consequently, there are concerns about shortages not only in the agriculture and packaging industries, but also of medical products, such as syringes, that are directly linked to people’s health and safety.

It is difficult to foresee for the time being how long Iran’s effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz will continue. To ensure the public’s peace of mind, it is essential not only to prevent disruptions in distribution, such as hoarding, but also to prepare for the risk of a prolonged crisis by securing alternative products.

It is also necessary to ensure a stable supply of crude oil. On March 26, the government began releasing oil from the national reserve. About 53 million barrels, equivalent to 30 days’ worth of domestic consumption, will be delivered to petroleum wholesalers. Combined with the recent release from private-sector reserves, this release amounts to about 50 days’ worth of supply, the largest such move in history.

As of the end of last year, Japan’s oil reserves totaled 254 days’ worth, one of the highest levels in the world. The latest releases account for about 20% of that total in oil reserves.

The prompt releases are a reasonable measure to alleviate immediate supply concerns.

On Monday, the Group of Seven held a ministerial meeting and issued a joint communique expressing its readiness to take “all necessary measures” to stabilize the energy market. Economy, Trade and Industry Minister Ryosei Akazawa mentioned further coordinated releases from oil reserves.

Going forward, considering additional measures will be a key task. In addition to close coordination with G7 members, it is also important to deepen cooperation with Asian countries to facilitate the mutual provision of oil products.

The oil industry has expressed the view that if the closure of the Strait of Hormuz continues, supply constraints for petroleum products could possibly occur as early as July. Potential issues should be identified now to determine the countermeasures that will be necessary in the future.

First and foremost, securing alternative sources of supply from the Middle East is an urgent priority. Procurement from Central Asia and South America should proceed. Imports from the United States should be expanded as well.

In other Asian countries where oil reserves are not as abundant as in Japan, the situation is already worsening. The South Korean government has begun restricting vehicle traffic, and in Sri Lanka, government agencies have introduced a four-day workweek.

An international organization is recommending measures to curb oil consumption, such as having people work from home and using public transportation. In Japan, it would be desirable to convey a message to the public early regarding at what stage measures to reduce oil consumption will become necessary.

(From The Yomiuri Shimbun, April 1, 2026)