Official Campaigning for Upper House Election Starts: How Will Japan Overcome an Era with Many Challenges? / Critical Occasion as New Govt Could be Chosen

Editorial

16:42 JST, July 3, 2025

There is no end to the challenges of domestic politics, such as soaring prices and an aging society with a low birth rate. In the international community, order, including that in the free trade system, is in danger of collapse.

How will Japan deal with these internal and external challenges and open up new prospects? The ruling and opposition parties must clearly present the course the country should take.

Campaigning for the 27th House of Councillors election officially kicks off today. A total of 125 seats will be up for grabs — 124 of which are held by members whose terms are set to end and one seat to fill a vacancy in the Tokyo constituency.

Rethink strategy for tariff talks

The ruling Liberal Democratic Party suffered a crushing defeat in the June Tokyo Metropolitan Assembly election, which was positioned as a prelude to the upper house election. The support ratings for the LDP are also at extremely low levels.

Upper house elections are essentially considered a midterm assessment of the current administration and cannot be said to be elections in which a new administration is chosen. However, if the LDP and Komeito, which are the minority ruling parties in the House of Representatives, were to lose their majority in the upper house as well, the political situation might become fluid, leading to such changes as a reshuffling of the coalition government.

In this upper house election, a major point of contention is the Japan-U.S. relationship. Regarding tariff negotiations, U.S. President Donald Trump has indicated that he will impose tariffs of 30%-35% on imports from Japan. He also said Japan would have to pay “whatever the number is that we determine.”

It is now possible that the 24% “reciprocal tariffs” the United States had previously intended to impose on Japan could be raised. Trump appears to be dissatisfied with the negotiations between Japan and the United States.

At a debate organized by the Japan National Press Club between the leaders of eight parties, Constitutional Democratic Party of Japan President Yoshihiko Noda said, “The distance between Japan and the United States is growing.” He asked Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba how he plans to break the deadlock in the negotiations.

Ishiba replied: “Japan is the largest investor in the United States and has created the most jobs in the country. Japan is very different from other countries in that sense.” He said if Japan persistently continues negotiations, it will open up a path forward.

Economic revitalization minister Ryosei Akazawa has already visited the United States seven times for ministerial-level talks, but there have been no visible results.

The idea that Japan will be able to avoid high tariffs in the end because it is an ally of the United States is a naive way of thinking. It will not work in negotiations with Trump. It has become necessary to rethink Japan’s negotiation strategy.

One way to press Washington to rethink its position would be to cooperate with European and other friendly countries and Southeast Asian nations. It is advisable that the ruling and opposition parties will rack their brains and compete with each other to find a solution.

Steps too meager against high prices

Regarding the biggest point of contention, the ruling and opposition parties have proposed measures to deal with high prices.

Both the LDP and Komeito have pledged to provide ¥20,000 in cash to each member of the public. An additional ¥20,000 would be given to every child and adults in households that are exempt from residential tax.

The opposition parties have proposed cutting or abolishing the consumption tax. On making the tax rate on groceries 0%, the CDPJ advocates for doing so for one to two years, while the Japan Innovation Party advocates for two years.

During the debate, many of the opposition party leaders criticized the proposed provision of cash as a lavish handout. Ishiba countered by saying, “A plan that does not have a focal point is a lavish handout.”

On the reason for his party touting the tax cut, Noda stated that it is “an effective measure to halt a rash of price increases of food and other products.”

Price increases have outpaced wage increases, and real wage growth has stagnated. In light of this situation, there are no objections to taking measures to deal with high prices. But their mainstay measures of cash handouts and consumption tax cuts seem to be too simplistic.

The LDP-Komeito coalition has provided a variety of cash handouts in the past, but it is unclear whether they have been effective.

If the consumption tax is abolished or reduced, there will be a hole in the funding of social security programs, such as pensions and medical and nursing care. A decline in the quality of services will be inevitable. It cannot be said that measures that will pass the burden on to future generations are appropriate.

Simply competing over shortsighted measures will not create fundamental solutions. It is essential to discuss reforms to increase economic productivity, leading to sustainable wage increases.

Voters’ judgments being tested

In elections in recent years, many voters have referred to information on social media when deciding who or which party to vote for.

However, some users post extreme claims or false information on social media in an attempt to increase the number of views and make a profit. In last year’s Hyogo Prefecture gubernatorial election, the internet was flooded with information of unknown veracity, and it is believed to have influenced the election results.

The Internal Affairs and Communications Ministry has asked major social media operators to take steps against false information, through such means as setting up a section that will receive requests to delete posts. However, whether to actually delete the posts on the grounds that the information is false is largely left to the judgment of the operators.

It is vital for voters to access various information and discern the political views of candidates and parties. This is an era in which the judgment of voters is also being tested.

(From The Yomiuri Shimbun, July 3, 2025)