Parties Gear Up for Upper House Poll: Result Certain To Influence The Fate of The Administration

Editorial

15:00 JST, June 24, 2025

If the ruling Liberal Democratic Party and its junior coalition partner Komeito, holding only a minority of seats in the House of Representatives, fail to grab a majority of seats in the House of Councillors, opposition parties will hold the cards on the passage of bills, and the Diet could become dysfunctional. To avoid this situation, it would become necessary to form a new coalition.

The upper house election is considered a midterm evaluation of the administration at the time of the election, but this summer’s election could be a critical one that will influence the fate of the administration.

Now that the Tokyo Metropolitan Assembly election is over, each party has shifted into full gear for the upper house election. The government is expected to decide as early as a Cabinet meeting on Tuesday that the official campaigning will start on July 3, with voting and vote counting taking place on July 20.

July 20 falls in the middle of a three-day weekend. This will be the first time since 1952, when current records began, that a major national election has been held on the second day of a three-day weekend.

Despite the fact that early voting has become popular in recent years, it is unavoidable for this schedule to be criticized as lacking consideration. It is the responsibility of politicians to create an environment that makes it easy.

In the Tokyo Metropolitan Assembly election, the LDP suffered its worst defeat ever, securing only 21 seats, including three won by independent candidates to whom the LDP retrospectively gave official endorsements.

One of the reasons for the LDP defeat was the party’s failure to consolidate its support base. According to an exit poll by The Yomiuri Shimbun, only 54% of LDP supporters voted for LDP candidates.

In the latest ordinary Diet session, 58 out of 59 bills submitted by the government were passed, a passage rate exceeding 98%. However, 12 of these 58 bills were amended at the demand of opposition parties. The amendment rate exceeded 20%, nearly double that of the previous ordinary Diet session.

At a press conference, Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba said that “certain achievements were made.” But the reality is that the government simply accepted various demands by the opposition. The administration’s repeated makeshift measures to maintain its power base must have appeared unreliable to voters.

On the other hand, the Constitutional Democratic Party of Japan increased its seats by five in the Tokyo assembly election. The Democratic Party for the People won nine seats, and the Sanseito party won three seats, both securing seats for the first time in the Tokyo assembly.

In Europe, far-right parties advocating such policies as the exclusion of immigrants are gaining ground. In Japan, too, forces with extreme views are emerging, but in the Tokyo Metropolitan Assembly election, parties that presented relatively moderate policies and steadily made appeals for those policies won support.

The regional party Tomin First no Kai (Tokyoites first group) became the largest party in the Tokyo Metropolitan Assembly. Aligned with Tokyo Gov. Yuriko Koike, it appealed to voters with measures such as the elimination of basic water fees this summer. However, such policies would only be possible in Tokyo, which has a healthy fiscal condition.

The ruling and opposition parties are proposing cash handouts or tax cuts as measures to combat rising prices, aiming to gain support in the upcoming upper house election. However, the national budget is extremely strained. Competing with each other with proposals to implement populist policies that would bring bills to future generations must be called irresponsible.

(From The Yomiuri Shimbun, June 24, 2025)