Decline in China’s Population: How Does Country Tackle Low Birth Rate, Aging Society?

Editorial

17:44 JST, February 3, 2025

China, following Japan and South Korea, has entered an era of full-fledged population decline. What should be done to halt the low birth rate and maintain social and economic vitality? This is a serious task faced by the countries.

The population of mainland China totaled 1.40828 billion at the end of 2024, down 1.39 million from the previous year. The country’s population began to fall in 2022 and declined for three consecutive years for the first time since the country’s founding in 1949.

Births increased for the first time in eight years to 9.54 million, up 520,000 from the previous year. Last year was the Year of the Dragon, traditionally considered a year of good fortune, and that is believed to have contributed to the increase. However, the number of births fell below 10 million for the third consecutive year. The trend of a declining birth rate continues.

According to the United Nations, China’s population is estimated to halve to 633 million by the end of the century.

Based on the belief that population determines national strength, China has attempted to control the level of the population under the state’s leadership. Childbearing was encouraged at the time of the country’s founding, but as concern over a population explosion grew, the Chinese government introduced the one-child policy in 1979 to steer the course toward curbing population growth.

However, in the 2000s, there were intensifying calls to address labor shortages and the impact on economic growth caused by the low birth rate. Inhumane forms of birth control were rampant, and there were problems such as the population’s gender ratio skewing toward males.

As a result, the Chinese government relaxed its one-child policy in 2016 to allow people to have a second child. In 2021, it allowed the birth of a third child. However, so far, the relaxation has not led to an increase in the number of births.

This is probably because childcare and education expenses are so costly that many people feel that having one child is all they can handle.

In response, Chinese President Xi Jinping gave instructions to strengthen the guidance for young people’s views on marriage, love and childbirth. Last autumn, the Chinese government launched measures such as improving the maternity and childcare leave system and enhancing day care services.

However, it is not easy for the state’s leadership to stop the trend of people marrying late or not at all. In addition to the diversification of values, the slowdown in economic growth and widening disparities in recent years have made it difficult for many people to have hope for the future, and as a result, they have given up on getting married.

Japan and South Korea are facing the same serious situation. There is no difference in these countries, where society is increasingly aging at the same time.

However, the population in China is estimated to be declining at a faster pace than that of Japan, and rapid changes could also affect the global economy. The social security system, including medical care and nursing care, is still weak, and there is also concern over whether the low birth rate and aging population will lead to social instability.

Japan, China and South Korea should think hard to overcome the situation.

(From The Yomiuri Shimbun, Feb. 3, 2025)