2nd Ishiba Cabinet: How Long Will This Unstable Administration Continue?

Editorial

15:00 JST, November 12, 2024

Despite the crushing defeat in the House of Representatives election, the second Cabinet of Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba has been formed as if nothing happened.

The decisions of the Diet, which represents the people and is the highest organ of state power, must be respected. But the administration, which was born in such a forcible manner as to go against the normal course of constitutional government, could prolong the chaos in the country’s politics.

Ishiba was elected to continue to lead the government after the prime ministerial election in both the lower house and the House of Councillors.

In the first round of voting in the lower house, no one gained a majority of the votes, so a runoff was held between Ishiba and Constitutional Democratic Party of Japan President Yoshihiko Noda — the two lawmakers who received the most votes in the first round. Because members of the Democratic Party for the People and other parties voted for their party leaders in the runoff, their votes were ruled invalid, and Ishiba was elected.

The prime minister is trying to maintain his administration with the help of the DPFP. However, the DPFP will only agree on matters supporting its demands, and it will not take responsibility for the overall management of the administration. It is trying to pass off the work of securing funds for policies to the ruling parties.

Under an administration with such a weak power base, can there be any progress on policies that require the people to bear the burden?

The government is gradually increasing the defense budget in response to the deteriorating security environment, but no decision has been made on when to raise income and other taxes to fund the budget. Nor have the details been worked out on the “support funds” to be collected on top of medical insurance premiums to help counter the low birth rate.

Diet affairs will also likely become more difficult to manage. As a result of the lower house election, seven of the 17 standing committees in the lower house are now chaired by opposition party members, up from two.

The CDPJ secured the chair of the lower house Budget Committee, which is considered to be the major organ for Diet deliberation, as well as the chair of such committees as the Judicial Affairs Committee. Noda is sticking to an idea to introduce a system that would allow married couples to select different surnames, and he appears to be aiming to have relevant legislation debated and voted on in the committee as soon as possible.

Debate on the selective surname system for married couples should not be done in haste, as the system could have a major impact on society.

In recent years, diplomacy has weighed heavier on world leaders, but a prime minister who has a weak base will have a hard time being assertive in negotiations in which national interests are at stake.

There is a possibility that Donald Trump, who has been reelected as president of the United States, will demand Japan bear more of the burden for defense. No doubt China also smells weaknesses in the Ishiba administration.

If the prime minister is forced to accept unreasonable demands or is subject to diplomatic pressure, it will be detrimental to Japan’s national interest.

To stabilize politics, the Liberal Democratic Party needs to form a formal coalition with the DPFP, together with current coalition partner Komeito. For this to happen, it is essential that the prime minister decides on whether he will stay in power or not.

(From The Yomiuri Shimbun, Nov. 12, 2024)