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On his fifth attempt, the post of prime minister is finally within Shigeru Ishiba’s grasp. He will be tested as to whether he can implement down-to-earth policies and regain public trust in the ruling Liberal Democratic Party.
In the party’s presidential election, Ishiba, former LDP secretary general, has been elected as the new leader. Ishiba is scheduled to be nominated as prime minister at an extraordinary Diet session to be convened on Oct. 1.
Ishiba, who up to now has continued to make remarks as if he were an opposition party member within the LDP, will take over the reins of government. His insight and competence will be tested as to whether he will be able to build a new era for the LDP.
Factions’ presence in runoff
In the first round of voting in the presidential election, no candidate reached a majority. In the ensuing runoff, Ishiba defeated economic security minister Sanae Takaichi.
Although most factions within the LDP have been dissolving, they still showed a certain presence in the runoff, with the former Kishida faction urging its members to vote collectively for Ishiba, and the still-existing Aso faction doing the same for Takaichi.
It may be possible that factions will also exert influence in appointments to party executive posts and Cabinet positions.
A record number of nine candidates ran in this presidential election, each of whom presented their own arguments. The LDP should make use of this experience and change its culture into a new one through vigorous policy debate.
In taking up the reins of government, Ishiba must work carefully to unite the party and achieve harmony.
In the past, Ishiba has not hesitated to be harsh and critical toward administrations. At a press conference following the presidential election, Ishiba said, “The LDP must be a party that follows the rules, is fair and impartial, and is always humble.” This was seen as an implicit criticism of the conventional management of the party.
While such a stance had the effect of attracting public attention, it also was regarded coldly by some party members. This contributed to Ishiba’s continued defeats in past presidential elections.
However, as the head of the next administration, Ishiba will now be on the side being criticized. Whether he is able to listen sincerely to harsh words and criticism and utilize them for the management of his government will determine its ups and downs.
As to party management, it has not been decided who will be responsible for the training of party Diet members, a function previously undertaken by factions. It is also necessary to decide how to coordinate various personnel affairs, such as the appointments of directors of policy divisions.
And there is no time to lose in dealing with issues of diplomacy and domestic policies.
Unless the decline in the population and the birth rate is halted, the economy and society will shrink, and it will become difficult to maintain the social security system. Both China and Russia have pushed ahead with violations of Japan’s airspace and territorial waters, as if perceiving a political vacuum in Japan.
To overcome these difficult situations, Ishiba must organize a strong Cabinet.
However, many of Ishiba’s campaign promises have provoked doubts about their feasibility.
Practicality of pledges questioned
In light of growing threats from China, Russia and North Korea, Ishiba has proposed the idea of an “Asian version of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization.”
However, it is highly unlikely that Southeast Asian countries, whose economic ties with China are close and whose interests with it are complicated, would agree to military cooperation with China in mind.
It would be constructive to build amicable relations by supporting Asian and Pacific island nations through existing frameworks such as the cooperative relationship among Japan, the United States and South Korea, and the Quad of Japan, the United States, Australia and India.
Ishiba has also proposed building a training base for the Self-Defense Forces in the United States. He says this is intended to put the Japan-U.S. alliance on an equal footing. However, the current alliance, in which the United States is obliged to defend Japan and Japan provides bases, must not be destabilized.
In addition, Ishiba has said that he will open liaison offices in Tokyo and Pyongyang to help resolve the abduction of Japanese nationals by North Korea, but the families of the abductees opposed the idea. As the family members are aging, resolving the abduction issue will likely be a top priority for the new administration.
Regarding constitutional revision, Ishiba has insisted that Paragraph 2 of Article 9, which prohibits the possession of any war potential, be deleted because it “contradicts the existence of the SDF.” He has also pointed out that “an organization with actual power that embodies the nation’s right to self-defense is internationally considered a ‘military,’” and has called for the inclusion of a “national defense force” in the Constitution.
How can headwinds be overcome?
This approach goes against the LDP’s current policy of stipulating the existence of the SDF in Article 9 of the Constitution. As party president, does Ishiba intend to discuss the direction of constitutional revision all over again?
The LDP is facing headwinds over the issue of politics and money.
Ishiba has said that the abolition of political activity funds, which the party provides to its lawmakers, is an option.
Although political activities require a certain amount of funds, the realization of elections that do not need a large amount of money can be said to be a demand of the times. It is also part of Ishiba’s mission to create a new image for the party.
