Essential Services Shortage to Hit Japan’s GDP By Up to ¥76 Tril. By 2040

The Yomiuri Shimbun

7:00 JST, November 18, 2025

A projection estimates that if shortages persist in essential services such as caregiving, transportation, and logistics, Japan’s real GDP, adjusted for price fluctuations, could decline by up to ¥76 trillion by 2040.

The Economy, Trade and Industry Ministry compiled the projection, and its findings will be disclosed at an expert meeting on Tuesday to discuss measures for maintaining essential services.

The breakdown of the ¥76 trillion loss is approximately ¥16 trillion in direct negative impact and approximately ¥60 trillion in negative impact on other industries, stemming from factors like population outflow from regions experiencing shortages in such services.

The expert meeting will consider financial support measures to encourage necessary capital investment and business diversification, aiming to improve the profitability needed to sustain essential services. The outcome of this discussion is expected to be finalized within the year.

The ministry estimates that Japan’s real GDP will reach ¥750 trillion by 2040, based on the premise of strengthening future economic and industrial policies.