Tokyo’s Core Inflation Stays above BOJ Target in July

Reuters

10:10 JST, July 25, 2025

TOKYO (Reuters) — Core consumer inflation in Japan’s capital stayed well above the central bank’s 2% target in July, data showed on Friday, adding to renewed market expectations for another interest rate hike this year.

The data will be among factors the Bank of Japan will scrutinize at its next rate review on July 30-31, when the board is expected to revise up this fiscal year’s inflation forecast in a quarterly review of its projections.

The Tokyo consumer price index (CPI), which excludes volatile fresh food costs, rose 2.9% in July from a year earlier, government data showed, slightly below a median market forecast for a 3.0% increase. It followed a 3.1% rise in June.

A separate index for Tokyo that strips away both fresh food and fuel costs — closely watched by the BOJ as a measure of domestic demand-driven prices — rose 3.1% in July from a year earlier after a 3.1% gain in June, the data showed.

The BOJ exited a decade-long, radical stimulus program last year and raised short-term interest rates to 0.5% in January on the view Japan was on the cusp of sustainably hitting its 2% inflation target.

While the central bank has signaled readiness to raise rates further, the economic impact of higher U.S. tariffs forced it to cut its growth forecasts in May and complicated decisions around the timing of the next rate increase.

But U.S. President Donald Trump’s surprise announcement on Wednesday of a trade deal with Japan has diminished uncertainty over the country’s economic outlook, prodding some investors to renew their bets on another rate hike by the end of this year.

Hours after the announcement, BOJ Deputy Governor Shinichi Uchida said the deal would reduce uncertainty and heighten the chance of Japan durably hitting the bank’s inflation target.

A Reuters poll, taken before the trade deal announcement, showed a majority of economists expect the BOJ to raise its key interest rate again by year-end, though most expect the bank to stand pat at this month’s meeting.