Japan’s Economy Ministry to Outline Scenario to Grow GDP to About ¥1,000 tril. in 2040; Outline Floats Doubling of Domestic Investment

The Yomiuri Shimbun

7:01 JST, April 22, 2025

Japan’s nominal gross domestic product (GDP) can be grown to about ¥1,000 trillion, 1.8 times the recent figure, according to a scenario set to be laid out by the government.

In the outline formulated by the Economy, Trade and Industry Ministry, the figure can be achieved by doubling domestic investment to ¥200 trillion in 2040 and by investing in strategic areas such as digitalization and economic security through cooperation with the private sector.

To achieve the ¥200 trillion figure, which is about twice the current level, capital investment needs to increase by 4% a year. If this is achieved, nominal GDP will see an increase of 3.1% per year, reaching a maximum of ¥975 trillion in 2040.

According to the scenario, nominal wages are expected to increase by 3.3% per year, reaching ¥5,366 per hour, nearly double the current figure. This would be achieved through improving productivity by investing in labor-saving fields such as software and robotics.

Since last year, the ministry has been creating a scenario to boost domestic investment and wage increases. The outline is expected to be announced during a meeting of experts on Tuesday.

The ministry intends to use the outline to incorporate corporate tax reform and other measures to boost investment into the government’s “Basic Policy on Economic and Fiscal Management and Reform” which set to be formulated by June.