China’s National People’s Congress Opens: Military Expansion Continues Despite Lowered Growth Rate

Editorial

16:23 JST, March 6, 2026

Despite China’s self-congratulatory claims that its economy has developed without succumbing to U.S. pressure, the reality is that it is clearly no longer able to sustain its high-growth trajectory.

The new report is tantamount to China finally acknowledging this. The Chinese economy, which had been solely focused on growth, has reached a turning point.

At the National People’s Congress, China’s national legislature, Premier Li Qiang delivered the government work report. He set this year’s gross domestic product growth target at “4.5% to 5%,” lowering it from last year’s “around 5%.”

This is the first time the Chinese government has lowered its growth target in three years, since 2023. It marks the lowest level since the 1990s.

China’s prolonged real estate slump has dampened domestic demand, intensifying the sense of economic deceleration. Trying to achieve overly ambitious targets often leads to excessive production and investment, which has also fueled excessive competition and deflationary pressures.

The administration of Chinese President Xi Jinping apparently accepted the modest downward revision of its targets in light of these realities. Even so, achieving the goals is no easy task.

In his report, Li emphasized the acceleration of self-reliance and self-strengthening without dependence on other countries for advanced technologies, such as artificial intelligence and semiconductors. The reality is that China is being forced to respond, as the United States continues to restrict exports of cutting-edge semiconductors for AI and other technologies.

Regarding foreign policy, Li stated China firmly opposes hegemony and power politics. Meanwhile, China has refrained from explicitly condemning U.S. President Donald Trump over U.S. attacks on Venezuela and Iran. It is also refraining from providing support to countries with which it maintains friendly relations, such as Iran.

The substance of China’s “peace diplomacy” will be put to the test at the U.S.-China summit scheduled for the end of this month.

The military budget proposal submitted to the congress amounts to about ¥43.5 trillion, a 7% increase from the previous year. This figure is about 4.8 times Japan’s proposed defense budget for the next fiscal year, indicating that the policy of military expansion exceeding economic growth remains unchanged.

The Xi administration is expanding its naval forces, including aircraft carriers, alongside its nuclear and missile capabilities. This appears to be part of a strategy to further block U.S. military access, with the goal of forcibly unifying Taiwan in mind.

However, in China, two top uniformed officers from the Central Military Commission — the military’s highest governing body — have been ousted. The commission, which was originally established with seven members, has now reached an abnormal state in which only two members remain, including Xi who also serves as the chair of the commission.

The latest activity report made no mention whatsoever of the turmoil surrounding the military. Doubts remain about what is happening within the inherently opaque Chinese military.

(From The Yomiuri Shimbun, March 6, 2026)